Geopolitical analysis of Iran deal and Strait of Hormuz (with Annmarie Hordern)

Asks how the Strait will actually reopen and whether we will see 20 million barrels flowing.

Annmarie Hordern

Victoria Coates

The 20 million barrels/day through the Strait mean much more to other G7 members (Japan, Europe) than to the US. The president will insist Iran does not charge tolls. Efforts to bypass the Strait (UAE pipeline, Saudi petro line) make it less of an asset for Iran going forward.

I hope we get strong statements from the G7 condemning any attempt by Iran to hold the world hostage over the Strait.

Asks how the Lebanon/Hezbollah issue creates a problem for the president's Iran negotiations.

Annmarie Hordern

Victoria Coates

Lebanon has been a problem for 50 years due to Hezbollah. Israel's right to self-defense is understandable. The president wants a deal between Lebanon's government and Israel separate from Hezbollah. Both perspectives are legitimate and not necessarily in conflict. The situation is resolvable.

The president said if Israel were more surgical in Lebanon, the US might assist them against Hezbollah. Nobody likes Hezbollah.

Asks where the Europeans are in all of this, given they are impacted by energy flows.

Dani Burger

Victoria Coates

Five of seven G7 members are European. There are hard conversations to be had. At the start of Operation Epic Fury, the British couldn't get one destroyer to the Mediterranean for two weeks. It's disturbing to see these militaries atrophy. It's not that they don't want to help, they can't help.

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