AI infrastructure cycle can last through end of this decade; we are only a third of the way through. Enterprise and consumer adoption is still early. Despite boom-bust history, this cycle is different because end customers are growing 20-30% annually, semiconductor capacity can't keep up, and top names (Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron) trade below market multiples.

Iran used Strait of Hormuz as leverage to extract economic concessions from the US, reversing the 2015 JCPOA dynamic. This is the second time in as many years a US adversary weaponized a choke point (China did same with rare earths). Other nations (Indonesia, Strait of Malacca) will take note. Sanctions failed as a tool for maximalist goals like regime change; economic pressure is powerful but limited.

Hyperscaler AI capex has driven massive semiconductor earnings but transformed tech into capital-intensive, competitive businesses with lower ROIC. The market is punishing this via multiple compression. Key unknown: how long hyperscalers will fund this. Inflation is mixed: persistent goods inflation but muted wages; core PCE at 3.4% could justify rate hikes, though Treasury refinancing needs ($10T) create political pressure for lower rates. Russell 2000 outperformance is distorted by upcoming rebalance.