Iran Strait of Hormuz Leverage and Sanctions Failure (with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Amarie Hordern)

Iran used Strait of Hormuz as leverage to extract economic concessions from the US, reversing the 2015 JCPOA dynamic. This is the second time in as many years a US adversary weaponized a choke point (China did same with rare earths). Other nations (Indonesia, Strait of Malacca) will take note. Sanctions failed as a tool for maximalist goals like regime change; economic pressure is powerful but limited.

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NDX

RUT

explicit

Metals

USD

Council on Foreign Relations 6.0
Policy Institute
Eddie Fishman 7.0

Iran Strait of Hormuz Leverage and Sanctions Failure (with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Amarie Hordern)

wti

Iran can still disrupt traffic. US cannot physically force the Strait open. Iran said a toll could be worth $40B/year.

3 calls

+16

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

4/27/2026 8:14:56 PM	short term up	6 days later	+6.49%	+6.49%
3/7/2026 1:24:02 AM	short term up	5 days later	+8.59%	+8.59%
1/7/2026 1:57:31 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+9.44%	-4.72%

Show all 3 wti results

Jonathan Ferro

No one's charging a toll, but aren't they being paid to reopen the Strait?
Eddie Fishman

Iran has reversed the 2015 dynamic: instead of US pressuring Iran, Iran used Strait of Hormuz to impose economic pressure on US and coerce economic concessions. All economic relief is front-loaded before any nuclear concessions.
Jonathan Ferro

Who else will take note?
Eddie Fishman

Pretty much everyone. China did the same with rare earths last year. Indonesia with Strait of Malacca has already discussed imposing fees. Iran said a toll could be worth $40B/year. Any government sitting across a strait will see that revenue opportunity.
Amarie Hordern

Will this continue to work for other players, or will there be enough pushback?
Eddie Fishman

Secretary Rubio said if Iran charges a fee, there will be chaos - undermining free and open commerce norms. But US military has proven over last 4 months it cannot physically force the Strait open. The norm has been underwritten by US power, and that guarantee is now in question.
Jonathan Ferro

Where will the hundreds of billions from the MOU go? White House says US agriculture. What's your view?
Eddie Fishman

The sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales has no restrictions on how Iran can use the money - even allows collection in US dollars for first time in decades. Money is fungible: even if some goes to agriculture, it frees up resources for nuclear program and missile program.
Jonathan Ferro

Sanctions failed. Operation Economic Fury failed. What are the lessons?
Eddie Fishman

Economic pressure is a powerful but limited tool. For curtailing Iran's nuclear program, it was viable (we had a deal in 2015). For maximalist goals like regime change, it's unlikely and leads to slippery slope toward military force.

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