Former envoy on Iran war trajectory and oil market impact (with Romaine Bostick, Bailey Lipschultz)

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Council on Foreign Relations 6.0
Policy Institute
Elliott Abrams 6.5

Former envoy on Iran war trajectory and oil market impact (with Romaine Bostick, Bailey Lipschultz)

wti

On reopening the Strait of Hormuz: I'll give you a number... about two weeks. By providing a specific timeline for a key supply chokepoint to remain closed, Abrams explicitly signals that the supply disruption—a primary driver of the recent price spike—will persist for the short term, supporting elevated or rising prices.

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+16

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

1/7/2026 1:57:31 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+9.44%	-4.72%

Elliott Abrams

I don't think there will be significant US boots on the ground. The war is not like Iraq or Afghanistan.

Trump lived through those and won't do that. You might see small commando raids or the use of Kurdish proxies.
Elliott Abrams

Week two will look like week one, but Iran will be less able to attack each day as we suppress their missiles and launchers.

Once we suppress Iranian anti-air ability, we can use older aircraft like B-52s to drop more ordnance.
Elliott Abrams

On reopening the Strait of Hormuz: I'll give you a number... about two weeks. We need to suppress the rest of the Iranian navy's fast boats and mining ability.
Elliott Abrams

The US deficits are so gigantic that the cost of this war is a marginal error. It won't control how long this goes.
Elliott Abrams

The US military is not overstretched unless something perks up in Asia. We are not in a position of fighting 2.5 or three wars at a time.

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