Jean Simard, CEO of the Aluminium Association of Canada, details how the war in Iran has severely disrupted aluminum production in the Middle East (Qatar, Bahrain, UAE), cutting supply by half. He warns of a looming supply shock for North America as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, with recovery expected to take 12-18 months plus 60 days shipping time.
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NDX
RUT
Oil
explicit
USD
Aluminium Association of Canada
2.5
Other
Jean Simard 7.0
Other
Jean Simard 7.0
5/31/2026 5:00:05 PM
metals
The supply is now depleted by about half of the metal that used to be shipped from the Middle East. The last ship to leave the Middle East has made it to the US. There's no other ship on its way. We're heading for a supply shock as we move through the summer period.
Trond Olaf Christophersen, CFO of Norsk Hydro, reports their Qatalum joint venture in Qatar is operating at 60% capacity due to the war. He notes the Asian market is worse impacted physically for supply, but the price impact is global. He describes a backwardation market with high front-month prices declining to $3,000/ton in future years.
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NDX
RUT
Oil
explicit
USD
Norsk Hydro
2.2
Energy
Trond Olaf Christophersen 8.5
Energy
Trond Olaf Christophersen 8.5
5/31/2026 5:00:05 PM
metals
You have quite high prices in the front end... but then you have a declining price, a backwardation situation in the markets with lower prices falling down to $3,000 per ton a couple of years out in time.
Brendan Moore, owner of Wolf Tooth Components (bike parts), describes how small manufacturers are squeezed by rising aluminum prices from war, tariffs, and AI data center demand. Unlike Boeing, they lack negotiating power and must absorb costs initially, with only 3-5% price increases possible despite 20% aluminum rises. He sees a 'triple whammy' of war, tariffs, and AI buildout.
Yields
NDX
RUT
Oil
explicit
USD
2.5
Chrystia Freeland 7.0
Chrystia Freeland 7.0
aluminum; tariffs
5/31/2026 5:00:05 PM
metals
If aluminum goes up 20% again this year...