Aluminum supply chain disruption from Middle East war (with Westin, Chrystia Freeland)

Jean Simard, CEO of the Aluminium Association of Canada, details how the war in Iran has severely disrupted aluminum production in the Middle East (Qatar, Bahrain, UAE), cutting supply by half. He warns of a looming supply shock for North America as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, with recovery expected to take 12-18 months plus 60 days shipping time.

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Aluminum supply chain disruption from Middle East war (with Westin, Chrystia Freeland)

metals

The supply is now depleted by about half of the metal that used to be shipped from the Middle East. The last ship to leave the Middle East has made it to the US. There's no other ship on its way. We're heading for a supply shock as we move through the summer period.

Westin

This is a story about trying to have it both ways. Since he first became president, Donald Trump has sought to protect the U.S. aluminum industry through tariffs. But the war in Iran may be taking us in a very different direction.
Jean Simard

The supply is now depleted by about half of the metal that used to be shipped from the Middle East because there's been some damage and there's been some curtailments to avoid further damage.
Jean Simard

Starting at the beginning of the crisis, the first curtailment happened in Qatar because of an energy supply situation and then damage was done in Bahrain and then to the Al Taweelah smelters in the Emirates.
Jean Simard

The last ship to leave the Middle East just before the beginning of the crisis has made it to the US. There's no other ship on its way. It took 60 days to get there. So the full shock is ahead of us.
Jean Simard

When the 50% tariff was implemented, it created a price shock in the market for exporters into the US as Canada is one of them. The reaction was to divert shipments to another market.
Jean Simard

It will take anywhere between 12 to 18 months for the Middle East supply that's been affected to come back into the market. Then you need 60 days to ship to North America. We're heading for a supply shock as we move through the summer period.

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