Geopolitical Analysis: Iran, Israel, Russia-Ukraine (with Kailey Leinz)

Asks if the Iran MOU is a win for the US, given it extends the ceasefire and aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate the nuclear program over 60 days.

Kailey Leinz

Evelyn Farkas

It looks like a win, but the devil is in the details. The blockade removal must be front-loaded. The hardest part will be freezing Iran's nuclear program.

We haven't seen the details of the agreement.

Asks what can realistically be accomplished in 60 days, given the JCPOA took two years.

Kailey Leinz

Evelyn Farkas

In 60 days, they can agree to remove blockades and ensure freedom of navigation. A nuclear deal is possible but depends on Iran's willingness to negotiate in good faith and whether the US withholds enough money. Iran must agree to stop enriching, remove enriched uranium, and agree to inspections.

The administration will likely provide Iran with some frozen assets as an incentive to continue talking.

Asks how the negotiations could be complicated by Israel's conduct, specifically Netanyahu's strike into Lebanon and Trump's reported anger.

Kailey Leinz

Evelyn Farkas

Netanyahu's objectives are not the same as Trump's. He wants to destroy Iran's military and proxy forces. He is on the political ropes and has a self-interest in keeping the war going. Trump does not want the war to continue.

Netanyahu's population is angry about attacks from Lebanon, giving him some support. A reckoning awaits him if the war ends due to corruption allegations and the Oct 7th failure.

Asks which pressure is greater for Netanyahu: domestic or from the US, and if Trump would use leverage.

Kailey Leinz

Evelyn Farkas

The US leverage is military and economic assistance. Netanyahu has signaled he no longer wants US assistance to avoid having to listen to US presidents.

Asks how confident she is that the US can play a hand in ending the Russia-Ukraine war, given Trump's stated priority.

Kailey Leinz

Evelyn Farkas

Ukrainians carry their destiny in their own hands. US involvement in negotiations won't change the calculation unless Trump understands Russia is losing and tells Putin to compromise. Russia is back on its heels militarily, economically, and politically.

The Russians have been unwilling to compromise so far.

Asks how weak Russia is and how much of that is due to Ukraine's battlefield success vs. the financial strain of the war.

Kailey Leinz

Evelyn Farkas

The two are interconnected. Ukraine's success costs Russia more in ammunition, oil, and manpower. Russia has a horrendous attrition rate of ~30,000 killed/injured per month. Ukraine manufactures 70% of its own munitions and uses drone swarms to attack Russian logistics and Crimea, taking land back.

Ukraine is squeezing Crimea, which is a large Russian base.

Asks if anything tangible will come from the G7 regarding Ukraine.

Kailey Leinz

Evelyn Farkas

She is skeptical. She doubts Trump fully understands Russia is losing and whether Russia is ready to capitulate. Nothing new will come out on Russia-Ukraine, maybe on the Middle East.

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