Turning cautious on US equities due to: 1) Stickiness of 10-year yield at 4.15% since late October, 2) AI capex story not as strong with adoption doubts, 3) Need for resolution of global growth concerns, especially China.

68% of US GDP is consumer, who needs lower borrowing rates; economy can't rely just on AI capex.

Agrees front end will come down more aggressively than market thinks, but that's bearish if borrowing costs don't fall. Remains modestly bullish for 12 months with S&P 500 target of 7500 (vs 6950 last year). Expects volatility and downturn in next 3 months.

If Trump administration shifts focus to housing policy and lowering borrowing costs, US consumer (who is unlevered) could drive economy.

Open to positive 10-year yield signal but worries cash-driven economy ending; consumers need to start leveraging. 10-year yield needs to come down a bit for sustainable growth.

Long copper and industrial metals; fiscal outlays have trickled down but are now exhausted; Trump administration should focus on lowering mortgage rate spread.