Credit Markets & War Impact Analysis (with Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec)

Yields up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX cautious down , short term, gpt inferred

inferred

RUT

Oil sharp up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Metals

USD

PGIM 7.8
Asset Manager $1400.00B
Mike Collins 8.5

Credit Markets & War Impact Analysis (with Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec)

ndx

His thesis that oil spike pressures financial conditions and consumer spending, combined with his view that the market is mispricing recession risk, suggests near-term caution for growth indices.

wti

This big spike we've seen in oil associated with the conflict in Iran. Discusses specific price impact ($100 to $200) on consumer spending.

1/7/2026 1:57:49 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+5.87%	-2.93%

yields

The front end has taken out two full Fed rate cuts off the market in two weeks.

1/7/2026 1:57:49 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.63%	+0.81%
1/5/2026 10:58:21 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.81%	+0.81%
12/4/2025 5:57:16 AM	medium term up	21 days later	-0.07%	-0.07%

Show all 3 yields results

Asks what shifted in the credit sell-off and if people are more risk-averse.

Tim Stenovec
Mike Collins

Oil spike gives pause on economic backdrop. Front end of yield curve took out two Fed cuts in two weeks, pressuring financial conditions.

Analysis shows oil going from $100 to $200 would double gasoline's share of disposable income to 10%, halting discretionary spending.
Asks if he agrees with parallels to 2008 due to oil and private credit concerns.

Carol Massar
Mike Collins

Strongly dismisses 2008 parallels. Late-cycle 'culture of greed' leads to fraud and weak underwriting in high-demand areas like private credit, but the scale is tiny vs. 2007 mortgages and banks are not levered.

Notes private debt markets have gates to restrict outflows, preventing bank runs.
Asks if his firm sees stress in private credit exposure.

Carol Massar
Mike Collins

No. PGIM is a conservative underwriter; they looked at 200 deals and invested in 25 last year. Large funds chasing inflows may be less discerning.
Asks what his main concern is if not private credit.

Tim Stenovec
Mike Collins

The rate side. High rates cause repricing and refinancing struggles, especially for floating-rate debt. Public credit fundamentals (IG/HY) are good and even improved.

Cites Morgan Stanley report.
Mike Collins

Historical study shows geopolitically induced oil shocks lead to LOWER inflation and Fed funds a year later. Market is only pricing inflation, not recession. Sees this as a buying opportunity.

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