The global inflation cycle is up, a trend that predates recent shocks. The market is being head-faked by oil; core inflation will continue to grind higher regardless. The Fed has a history of misreading these cyclical turns as structural shifts, and real yields are starting to price in another policy error. A premature cut while the cycle is still rising would be a Burns-esque mistake, unleashing massive volatility. The key risk is the Fed fighting the last war.