Geopolitical Analysis of Iran Deal (with Yvonne Man, Avril Hong)

Mara Rudman provides a critical analysis of the U.S.-Iran framework, comparing it unfavorably to the 2015 Obama deal. She argues the current framework is just an entry into negotiations, with Iran already receiving massive sanctions relief for a tentative commitment on the Strait of Hormuz. She is highly skeptical that a robust nuclear inspection and enrichment deal can be reached within 60 days, citing the complexity and Iran's proven mastery of asymmetric warfare.

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Former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor 2.5
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Mara Rudman 7.5

Geopolitical Analysis of Iran Deal (with Yvonne Man, Avril Hong)

wti

The reopening of the Strait is tentative and dependent on insurers and shipping companies' confidence. A breakdown in talks could send oil prices up again, creating a volatile near-term outlook.

Asks for a comparison between the 2015 Obama deal and the current MOU with Trump and Iran.

Avril Hong
Mara Rudman

The current framework is just an entry into negotiations, unlike the culmination of months of work that the JCPOA was. Iran is already getting massive sanctions relief for a very tentative commitment on the Strait of Hormuz, creating an imbalance.

The hope is that the Trump team can achieve something close to the Obama plan, which contained Iran's enrichment activities and required regular inspections.
Asks what tangible outcomes could change the trajectory and benefit the U.S. in the 60-day negotiation period.

Yvonne Man
Mara Rudman

The world should want to see a significantly reduced ability to enrich uranium and disposal of the over 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium (over 60%) that Iran holds. A regular inspection regime is also critical.

She is highly skeptical this can occur within 60 days and is concerned the administration's approach might be too much like the Gaza agreement, which stalled after its first phase.
Asks how Iran's bottom line has shifted after the war and whether it encourages them to keep nuclear materials within the country.

Avril Hong
Mara Rudman

Iran proved to be masters of asymmetric warfare. Their ability to control the Strait of Hormuz was as powerful as having a nuclear weapon. There is no sign Iran will be more willing to halt nuclear activity.

Any agreement needs a rigorous inspection component, and 60 days is a very short period of time to get this done.
Asks if Israel will cooperate by not attacking Lebanon during the 60-day period.

Avril Hong
Mara Rudman

Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a very difficult position. He is not polling well ahead of elections and has a strained relationship with his military. It is impossible to predict what he will order his military to do.
Asks if shipping companies have seen enough to confidently send vessels through the Strait of Hormuz again.

Yvonne Man
Mara Rudman

Major shipping companies are unwilling to take the risk. There will be a wait-and-see attitude, depending on insurers. President Trump's assertions on the conflict have been inaccurate and changed within hours, so companies will not base decisions solely on his statements.

A fair amount of due diligence is needed before regular flows of ships resume.
Asks if the compressed 60-day timeline and proximity to the midterms changes the calculus for the U.S.

Avril Hong
Mara Rudman

President Trump is clearly focused on the economy and not wanting to be another Herbert Hoover. The price of gasoline is a key factor. Restarting the conflict would raise the specter of gas prices going up before the election, which he will want to avoid.

This gives Iran leverage at the negotiating table. It is very unclear the U.S. can get what it needs, even just on the nuclear issue, let alone ballistic missiles and proxy support.

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