Political risk expert on the Iran ceasefire details and structural shifts (with Katie Greifeld, Romain Bostick)

Kevin Kajiwara (Teneo) cautions that the Iran 'deal' is a détente/ceasefire extension, not a new peace deal. The Strait reopening will take time—mines, damaged ships, degraded cargo. He warns against assuming a return to pre-conflict volumes, citing the Houthi/Red Sea precedent where volumes only reached 50% after 6 months. Expects massive infrastructure build (pipelines, storage) to diversify away from the Strait.

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Teneo 3.0
Management Consulting
Kevin Kajiwara 7.5

Political risk expert on the Iran ceasefire details and structural shifts (with Katie Greifeld, Romain Bostick)

wti

To think that we're going back to February 27 is a fallacy... volumes have only reached about 50% of pre-conflict levels.

Asks what the biggest unanswered questions are for C-suite clients regarding the Iran deal.

Katie Greifeld
Kevin Kajiwara

The key question is 'is it real this time?' This is a continuation of a ceasefire, not a new peace deal. The Strait opening and pullback of the blockade will take time; volumes close to pre-conflict levels will take a while.

The word 'potential' is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
Asks what to watch for in the next few days to determine if the deal is real and safe for product flow.

Katie Greifeld
Kevin Kajiwara

Why is the signing ceremony not until Friday? Are details still being worked out? Shippers and insurers need to assess how open the Strait actually is—de-mining, damaged ships, degraded cargo will take work.

Previous conflicts (Houthi/Red Sea) saw volumes only reach 50% of pre-conflict levels after 6 months.
Asks if this conflict will cause a major structural shift in sourcing, e.g., alternative pipeline routes around the Strait.

Romain Bostick
Kevin Kajiwara

Iran and the world now know Iran can close the Strait. Expect massive infrastructure build: alternative pipelines, rebuilt loading facilities, and destination storage. This is a huge investment opportunity but will diversify away from past patterns.
Asks if clients are now scenario-planning for the next geopolitical risk, irrespective of the Strait.

Romain Bostick
Kevin Kajiwara

It's a fool's errand to predict the next conflict; the question is whether you have the nimbleness and resilience to deal with it. Boards need to decide what to take on faith and what to price as an unknown.

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