Geopolitical and Political Analysis (with Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec)

Chris Kennedy assesses the Iran-US conflict as a protracted low-level conflict, not a ceasefire, with both sides calibrating strikes to avoid escalation. He notes Iran is hardening demands, linking a deal to Israel's actions in Lebanon. On US politics, he sees President Trump's influence as still powerful within the Republican base despite low approval ratings, and views the Maine Senate race as a key risk for Democrats with an insurgent candidate.

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Geopolitical and Political Analysis (with Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec)

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Kennedy states Iran feels confident in its ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and the conflict is protracted. This implies continued upward pressure on oil prices in the near term.

yields

The ongoing conflict and its inflationary impact on energy prices, combined with the Fed's inability to cut rates, suggests upward pressure on yields.

Asks Chris Kennedy to assess the state of the Iran war and what comes next, given President Trump's threats to strike again.

Carol Massar
Chris Kennedy

The president is frustrated with the pace of negotiations. The recent actions are not jeopardizing what we call a 'warm ceasefire', as both sides are calibrating strikes to prevent a major escalation back to the hot conditions of March and April.

The two sides are still very far apart on many issues. Iran is hardening its demands, linking a deal to Israel stopping its campaign in Lebanon and the unfreezing of funds.
Asks if the situation can still be called a ceasefire and what leverage each side has.

Tim Stenovec
Chris Kennedy

It's a protracted, low-level conflict, not a ceasefire. Iran feels confident in its ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. The US is counting on economic pressure, but the president is becoming frustrated with that approach.

The points of leverage haven't changed, but positions have hardened.
Shifts the topic to US primary races in Maine, Nevada, South Carolina, and North Dakota, asking what they reveal about the current administration's policies.

Carol Massar
Chris Kennedy

Despite dropping approval ratings over the war and economy, President Trump remains a powerful force in the Republican base. The Maine Senate race is a key risk for Democrats; the insurgent candidate's victory shows a lack of national Democratic leadership and a populist economic message resonating with voters.

Susan Collins faces major headwinds from an unpopular war and economy. The candidate's narrative is about affordability.

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