Fed Rate Path and Dissent (with Katie Greifeld)

Deborah Cunningham expects no Fed rate movement at all in 2026—neither cuts nor hikes. She anticipates more dissents going forward, as seen in the last meeting with the largest number of dissenters since 2012. The presence of former Chair Powell in the room will still encourage stability.

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Deborah Cunningham 8.0

Fed Rate Path and Dissent (with Katie Greifeld)

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There will not be any Fed rate movement at all in 2026.

3 calls

slightly better than random

4/11/2026 1:20:27 AM	medium term sharp up	21 days later	+3.47%	+5.20%
3/27/2026 5:34:28 AM	short term down	7 days later	-0.16%	+0.16%
10/21/2025 9:54:28 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.11%	-0.56%

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You said Kevin Warsh won't deliver a rate cut in June. What about the course of 2026?

Katie Greifeld
Deborah Cunningham

Our outlook is no Fed rate movement at all in 2026—neither cuts nor hikes. Voting members tend to be more hawkish than regular FOMC members. It's difficult to see action, especially with Powell still in the committee, encouraging stability.

The presence of Powell in the room will still be an influence that encourages stability when indicators might suggest otherwise.
Are we heading toward fewer words in statements and more dissents?

Katie Greifeld
Deborah Cunningham

We'll have to judge on evidence. The last meeting had the largest number of dissenters since 2012—regional presidents dissented on verbiage, not just the vote. I think we'll see more dissents with reasoning behind them.

You had regional presidents dissenting on transparency/verbiage, and others voting differently on a dissension basis.

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