Strategic Victory in Iran Could Prove 'Elusive', says Gavito

10/21/2025 10:03:44 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+1.80%	+1.80%

Asks if real forward progress is being made in the Iran negotiations, noting both sides talk past each other.

Joe

Jen

Negotiations ongoing is a positive sign; resolution will come through negotiation, not military force. The president's maximalist positions make it harder to walk back.

Cites specific demands like shipping out nuclear material and Iran's need for economic relief. Both sides must concede.

Asks if anything has changed in the three weeks since the Iran war hit the 60-day mark.

speaker3

Jen

Very little has changed. Trump is torn between cutting losses via negotiation or returning to armed conflict, but military action wouldn't change the calculus. Stuck in limbo.

The perfect being the enemy of the good.

Asks what the best the US can hope for is, given Trump wants a 'great' deal.

Joe

Jen

Strategic victory is elusive. Best case: Strait of Hormuz opens unconditionally, global trade resumes, and some nuclear progress (pushing out enrichment timelines, not necessarily shipping out uranium). US damaged Iran's drone/missile programs but they will be rebuilt.

Iran can still wield the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon in the future. Options are limited.

Asks about the importance of continued fighting between Israel and Lebanon and whether it will prevent a deal.

speaker3

Jen

Extremely consequential. Netanyahu is frustrated by lack of leverage over Trump and concerned about the rumored deal. Iran tied a Lebanon ceasefire to its willingness to deal with the US, giving Netanyahu leverage. Hezbollah and Netanyahu both have reasons to play spoiler.

Hezbollah launched over 100 rockets into northern Israel.

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