Israel's security concerns over Iran deal (with Joe Matthew, Kailey Lines)

Michael Oren states the reported U.S.-Iran MOU does not address Israel's core war goals: preventing Iran's nuclear weapon, removing enriched uranium, stopping ballistic missiles, or ending support for proxies. Israel was not consulted, is not bound, and will continue self-defense even at risk of friction with the U.S. He sees a somber mood in Israel as hopes for a transformed region have dissipated.

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Former Israeli Ambassador to the United States 1.0
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Michael Oren 7.5

Israel's security concerns over Iran deal (with Joe Matthew, Kailey Lines)

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Oren's somber outlook and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on tech-heavy Nasdaq. Show reports Nasdaq 100 down 1.4%.

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Oren notes the MOU includes reopening Strait of Hormuz, which would increase oil supply and lower prices. The broader context of the show shows WTI down 6% on the day.

Joe Matthew

Asks what the MOU needs to look like for Israel to be comfortable.
Michael Oren

Lists five joint U.S.-Israel war goals: prevent Iran nuclear weapon, end nuclear program, remove enriched uranium stockpile (~2,000 lbs, enough for ~12 bombs), stop ICBM system, stop support for terrorist groups (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis), plus reopening Strait of Hormuz. Questions if MOU addresses any of these.
Kailey Lines

Quotes Trump criticizing Netanyahu: 'you don't have to knock down an apartment house every time you're looking for somebody' and 'I'm not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah.' Asks if there is truth to this or a fundamental misunderstanding.
Michael Oren

Calls it a longstanding difference: enemies hide among civilians as shields; if civilians are killed, it is not Israel's responsibility. Suggests Trump should address Hezbollah to stop shooting and hiding.
Joe Matthew

Asks if U.S. and Israeli interests are diverging on Iran, and if Israel will have to go its own way.
Michael Oren

Natural for interests to diverge: U.S. is far from Middle East, not immediately threatened; Israel is in Iran's backyard, threatened existentially. Israel will say this agreement is between U.S. and Iran, not with Israel — not consulted, not signed, not obligated. Will continue to defend itself in Lebanon and against Iranian nuclear/ballistic threats.
Kailey Lines

Asks about mood in Tel Aviv/Jerusalem — optimism or nervousness about the deal.
Michael Oren

Very somber mood. Earlier hope for a transformed region (peace with Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, post-Ayatollah Iran, restored Pax Americana) has largely dissipated. From what is known, MOU seems unrelated to ballistic missiles, terror support, or Iran's genocidal policy. U.S. and Israel greatly degraded Iran's capabilities, but may face similar or enhanced threats in the future.
Joe Matthew

Asks if U.S. could get drawn back in defensively to defend Israel.
Michael Oren

It could happen and has in the past (Biden administration helped defend Israel from Iranian missiles). U.S. is committed to Israel's defense, but there may be policy differences on how Israel defends itself. No Israeli government can maintain legitimacy without fulfilling its primary duty of defending the country, even at risk of friction with the U.S.
Kailey Lines

Asks what happens if there is no nuclear deal after 60 days.
Michael Oren

Wagers another 60-day extension. Positive: unlike 2015 JCPOA (which gave Iran money upfront), Trump administration appears to be withholding payments until Iran conforms. But may fall far short of Israel's basic security needs.
Joe Matthew

Plays Trump clip: 'Without the United States, there would be no Israel. Without me, there would be no Israel.' Asks what Israel could realistically do without U.S. backing and weapons.
Michael Oren

Israel did not have a strategic alliance with the U.S. before 1967; fought Six-Day War with French arms. Israel has survived, sometimes by close calls. Without American armaments, Israel would seek armaments elsewhere. Criticism of Netanyahu in Israel is that he has not been sufficiently forceful against Hezbollah, harming his reelection chances.

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