Iran Supply Chain Shock to Last Weeks, Not Months, BlackRock’s Boivin Says

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Jean Boivin 9.0

Iran Supply Chain Shock to Last Weeks, Not Months, BlackRock’s Boivin Says

wti

Market has already been assuming we're going to get like the kind of 90s plus number until into June, right? So then declining to December. That's already a couple of months. The shock is driving prices higher temporarily, with market curve pricing $90+ until June before declining. This represents an upward move from current 70s-80s levels to 90s, but the interviewee emphasizes it's temporary (weeks/couple of months) rather than sustained.

1/6/2026 1:09:12 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+11.43%	-5.72%
8/5/2025 2:33:26 AM	short term down	5 days later	-0.61%	+0.61%

Introduces BlackRock's view that the energy-led supply chain shock is likely short-lived, measured in weeks rather than months.

speaker1
Jean Boivin

Cannot ignore the shock. The Strait of Hormuz is key to watch, with tanker flows at about 16% of normal - a massive shock for now.

We need to track how disruptions evolve and also watch the response rate. Oil prices are driven by conflict but will also drive the response.
Jean Boivin

The world cannot sustain months of $100+ oil; people will react. This is not days, not months, but weeks.

Maybe a couple of months, but it's not months. We're in a realm of weeks.
Goldman forecasts crude in the 90s for Q4 if disruption lasts 60 days. December crude currently trading in 70s-80s.

Asks if this changes the story.

speaker1
Jean Boivin

Market already pricing $90+ until June then declining to December - that's a couple of months of shock.

This will add to inflation narrative and challenge the previous benign inflation view.
Jean Boivin

Not a stagflationary shock unless we get months of $200+ oil, which would shave 0.5% off growth and add 1% to global inflation.

Current situation is a big story but not that significant risk level.

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