New Fed Chair Warsh is immediately constrained by an oil shock, rendering inherited dovish guidance obsolete. The bond market's hike pricing is a misread; the equity market's 'next-move-is-a-cut' view is correct, but timing is the entire trade. The Fed is on hold through summer. The key conflict emerges in September: Trump's pressure for pre-midterm cuts vs. war-driven inflation. Oil's trajectory is the only variable that matters for the easing window.