A tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal between the U.S. and Iran has been reached at the staff level, but President Trump has not yet signed off. The deal includes a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and kicking nuclear talks down the line. Trump appears willing to wait, seeing this as a legacy issue rather than being constrained by midterm political pressures, which could prolong negotiations.

The AI trade is driving a strong equity rally in Asia, particularly in Korea, with retail investors leading the charge. However, this narrow rally is creating concentration issues for fund managers forced to sell winners. Bond yields are likely to move higher in the near term due to resilient growth, AI capex spending, and sticky inflation, unless the Fed signals a pivot.

Markets are moving beyond Middle East geopolitics to focus on fundamentals and the AI growth story. Consumers are 'crabby but employed' and will keep spending, though they are becoming more choiceful. Inflation is likely contained, driven by tech sector demand rather than broad-based pressures. The market needs to broaden for sustainability, but technology's 40%+ weight in the index makes it hard to ignore.

Mitsui is expanding its LNG and gas chemicals business globally, with the U.S. business already representing over a quarter of net earnings. The CEO calls for the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to resume. The world needs more reliable and competitive production sites to meet rising energy demand, particularly from AI data centers. Mitsui is working on a clean ammonia project in the U.S. that sequesters carbon emissions.