Politics Editor on U.S.-Iran Deal Stalemate (with Haidi Stroud-Watts, Paul Allen)

Asks for an update on the U.S.-Iran deal, noting there hasn't been substantial development for days.

Haidi Stroud-Watts

Laura Davison

A staff-level deal for a 60-day truce and phased opening of the Strait of Hormuz exists, but Trump hasn't signed off and needs more days to review; the Iranian side also hasn't confirmed full signoff. The process appears stalled.

Trump skipped his son's wedding to hash this out over the weekend, but nothing came of it. There was a glimmer of hope last weekend when Trump said a deal would be announced within hours, but it didn't materialize.

Asks if Iran is negotiating in good faith or running out the clock until the midterms.

Paul Allen

Laura Davison

Trump has said he is willing to wait, contrary to conventional wisdom that he needs a deal to lower energy prices before the midterms. He stated at a cabinet meeting, 'I don't care about the midterms,' seeing this as a legacy issue. Iran also appears willing to run out the clock, suggesting a prolonged negotiation period.

This is a departure from normal political considerations, as Trump faces approval ratings below 30% on the economy and consumer sentiment at an all-time low.

Notes that consumer spending data (PCE) shows pressure from higher pump prices, with real personal incomes declining. A 60-day extension would cover the crucial summer driving season.

Haidi Stroud-Watts

Laura Davison

Confirms the potential for the extension to cover summer, noting that Trump doesn't have the same urgency as his Republican allies or past presidents would have in a similar political crisis.

Inflation is kicking in as people head out for summer vacations and back-to-school shopping, which voters are unhappy about.

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