Commodity outlook: Gold, silver, copper (with Jennifer Zabasaja)

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BNP Paribas 8.5
Investment Bank $600.00B
David Wilson 8.5

Commodity outlook: Gold, silver, copper (with Jennifer Zabasaja)

metals

I agree with what you were quoting earlier saying $100 upside... That might be the profit-taking level, we could see a drop back from that. Silver's rally driven by specific catalysts in a thin market; physical easing and potential profit-taking suggest near-term volatility and possible correction after reaching ~$100.

5 calls

+19

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

12/22/2025 2:27:08 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+7.73%	+7.73%
9/10/2025 2:18:05 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+8.44%	+12.66%

Asks what sustains the view that risks to gold remain to the upside.

Jennifer Zabasaja
David Wilson

Gold thrives on uncertainty: geopolitical tariffs, uncertainty over the Fed chair, rates, and potential inflationary pressure from past tariffs.

Forecast $5,000 in November; at ~$4,700 now, it's not a stretch.
Asks if he increases the ceiling for gold near-term.

Jennifer Zabasaja
David Wilson

Has to consider a higher target level given the sustained uncertainty. Can go to $5,000 and sustain a move above it for further upside.
Asks about silver's parabolic rally, if it's sustainable, and the catalyst for a correction.

Jennifer Zabasaja
David Wilson

Silver is a thinner, less liquid market. The parabolic move started mid-December due to catalysts: India collateralization, China export restriction fears, US critical mineral tariff fears.

Physical market is definitely easing (lease rates dropping). Last week's news of no critical mineral tariffs sparked a 6% correction, but it rallied again on geopolitical uncertainty. It's a thin market; profit-taking could lead to a significant correction. Agrees with $100 target but that might be a profit-taking level.
Asks about copper's rally on supply shortfalls, suggesting the price action may not tell the full story.

Jennifer Zabasaja
David Wilson

Copper's rally is partly tariff-related, but the US flipped to a net refined exporter in November, collapsing the arbitrage. China's refined production is up 7-8%, exports surged.

Thinks ~1 million tons of copper may be sitting in the US (CME and off-warrant), some now flowing out. Doesn't see tightness in the refined market.

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