Iran and US exchange calibrated strikes after US helicopter downed; ceasefire talks ongoing but hostilities continue, with oil prices rising and risk appetite fragile.

CPI expected above 4% for first time in 3 years, challenging Fed credibility; markets price September hike but 30-year yield near 5% is key risk; ECB likely to hike twice, BOE faces inflation challenges.

Jobs report positive but not a game-changer; core inflation needs to rise more for sustained Fed hikes; 10-year likely to stay around 4.5%; ECB pragmatic on hikes; UK gilt spike on Burnham win would be buying opportunity.

Private credit industry seeing record activity; withdrawals from short-term vehicles not affecting 6th Street's long-term model; defaults will rise as industry doubles but underlying health is fine; AI data centers present generational opportunity but shakeout expected in 2-4 years.