Jobs report changed market narrative; asking if it changed guest's view.

Jobs report was positive but average hourly earnings did not rise and unemployment did not fall; trend is positive but not a one-off; CPI data needed to confirm.

What would it take in inflation data to see Fed hikes by year-end?

Need headline inflation to translate into core CPI and core PCE; markets not pricing persistent inflation shock yet; Iran conflict adds risk; tail risk for higher inflation in September/October with oil, rate hikes, and IPOs.

New Fed chair Warsh may change communication style; market reaction?

First meeting will be about processes; gradual change; easing bias will be eliminated for neutral stance; dot plot and press conferences uncertain.

Where will 10-year end the year?

10-year steady around 4.5%; 4.75% is ceiling; 30-year barely breaks 5%; volatility at front end where rate hikes are priced; more hikes reduce long-end pressure.

Can ECB hike as many times as priced given weaker growth?

ECB pragmatic: hike a couple of times as insurance, then cut if growth weakens; they are committed to 2% target without employment mandate.

If ECB messaging Thursday is less hawkish, how much do yields drop?

Front-end very volatile with 20bp moves on Iran noise; 10-year around 3% for long time; if ECB is dovish, market might worry because Iran conflict unresolved, perversely pushing long-end yields higher.

UK by-election: will gilt yields spike if Burnham wins?

Consensus expects left-wing fiscal policy risking fiscal rules; but limited fiscal space even for Burnham; gilt spike would be buying opportunity; BOE more interesting as they are in a pickle.