Oil to Be ‘Ongoing, Absolute Disaster’ Over Next Two Months, Analyst Sankey Says

Oil faces a two-to-three-month 'absolute disaster' due to mispriced comfort on de-escalation. Tanker arrivals only ceased recently, and inventory data is alarming. Supply chains are fracturing (e.g., Australian jet fuel, Japanese chip solvents), and 'emergency' inventories are overstated, with further releases becoming problematic. Expect a sharp upward move in WTI as these factors converge, despite current relative gasoline affordability.

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Sankey Research 7.2
Investment Research Firm
Paul Sankey 7.0

Oil to Be ‘Ongoing, Absolute Disaster’ Over Next Two Months, Analyst Sankey Says

oil

wti

The next two months is going to be an ongoing absolute disaster... it's a very bad situation Inventory numbers are getting scary, supply chains are breaking, and emergency inventories are lower than they appear, all pointing to a sharp upward move in oil prices.

4/3/2026 7:31:50 PM	short term sharp up	7 days later	-11.86%	-17.79%
3/10/2026 12:06:58 AM	medium term up	20 days later	+16.19%	+16.19%
12/22/2025 10:03:30 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-0.51%	+0.26%

Asks interviewee to explain why the situation will get very bad despite public comfort with de-escalation.

speaker1
speaker2

The comfort is misplaced because tanker arrivals only stopped last week, and inventory numbers are already becoming scary, with the worst yet to come.

We are not yet at crisis pricing levels; gasoline is still relatively cheap for Americans compared to Europe, but the situation is regressive and will worsen.
speaker2

The next two months will be an absolute disaster for oil supply, locked in by tanker positioning, even if straits reopen tomorrow, likely extending to three months.

Supply chains are breaking in specific areas like Australian jet fuel and Japanese solvents for chip making, revealing where cracks will appear.
speaker2

Emergency inventories are effectively lower than reported because the first release is easy, the second is concerning, and the third may not be feasible.

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