Geopolitical tensions (Tehran) fall under 'triggers'. Base case is de-escalation over time, as the president indicated limited appetite for kinetic action. Missiles are not damaging oil infrastructure. Expects energy prices closer to $75/barrel by year-end, which would reduce inflation and simplify Fed policy.

The market's base case aligns with de-escalation; oil infrastructure is not being targeted, supporting the view that oil prices will ease.

Oil is a sideshow; the fundamental driver is the technology sector. Technology and communication services combined are 50% of the index. However, energy should not be ignored: US SPR levels are near 40-year lows, and increased production from US, Canada, Venezuela, and Norway helps contain prices.

The market is not the economy; it's really all about tech.

Yes, maintains 7650 target. The 'three T's' were issued to advise caution near term. The tech sector just entered a correction (down >10%), but this is normal: tech has had six corrections of 10%+ in this bull market, while the S&P 500 had only two. Tech has rewarded patience, doubling the S&P 500 over time. Advises not to make tech decisions during non-earnings season, as tech averages +5% during earnings season vs. +1% outside it.

Earnings drive the tech sector; corrections are buying opportunities for patient investors.