Francine Lacqua reports from Sintra that all eyes are on Fed Chair Warsh, who has been meeting with governors. She notes a faction in the FOMC may push for a hike to show independence, while AI could enable disinflation and cuts next year. ECB officials are uniformly data-dependent and reluctant to give forward guidance, but want markets to keep pricing in a hike to tighten financial conditions. They agree second-round effects from energy prices are not over, even with a potential Middle East ceasefire.