US-Iran talks and oil market outlook (with Vonnie Quinn)

Abir Abu Omar reports that indirect US-Iran talks in Doha were positive, with Iran claiming $12 billion in frozen assets being unlocked and ability to sell oil at a premium. However, the nuclear component remains contentious. Iran has run a container ship aground in the Strait of Hormuz for using an unauthorized route, showing tangible difficulties. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warn of an oil glut, with Morgan Stanley estimating $75/barrel average for Q3 and Q4.

Yields

NDX

RUT

implicit

Metals

USD

Bloomberg 7.0
Financial Media
Abir Abu Omar 3.5

US-Iran talks and oil market outlook (with Vonnie Quinn)

wti

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both warn of an oil glut and oversupply by year-end, with Morgan Stanley estimating $75/barrel. This implies downward pressure on oil prices despite geopolitical tensions.

Goldman Sachs is sounding the alarm on a potential oil glut, after a similar warning from Morgan Stanley. This comes as US-Iran indirect talks resume in Doha.

Vonnie Quinn
Abir Abu Omar

Indirect talks happened through delegations and were on a positive trajectory. Iran claims $12 billion in frozen assets are being unlocked and they can sell oil at a premium. The nuclear component remains a contentious point not clarified.

Iran's top negotiator said three things were achieved, but the US side has not validated these claims.
Abir Abu Omar

Iran has run a container ship aground in the Strait of Hormuz for using an unauthorized route, showing tangible difficulties. Oil prices are not reacting to this. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warn of oversupply by year-end, with Morgan Stanley estimating $75/barrel average for Q3 and Q4.

Talks are expected to continue, but Kushner and Witkoff are not expected to take part in further talks.

SignalTube

markets at a glance