Walser: Divided Fed Shows Growing Instability, ORCL Poses A.I. Questions

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Walser Wealth 4.2
Wealth Manager
Rebecca Walser 8.0

Walser: Divided Fed Shows Growing Instability, ORCL Poses A.I. Questions

ORCL

ndx

as long as we get accommodation I think equities will continue to run Fed accommodation supports equities. Cheap credit fuels AI investment, though notes pushback on debt financing for some plays like Oracle.

1 calls

slightly better than random

yields

Argues bond market reacts to risk from fiscal/monetary stimulus. Notes 10-year yield dropped below 4% but is 'back up to over 4.1%', and 'we are starting to price in more risk'. Implies if stock markets don't rally, bond market would force yields up due to excessive risk pricing.

Asks for reaction to yesterday's Fed call and Santa Claus rally expectations.

Nicole
Rebecca Walser

Fed is accommodative, which is better for equities and small caps. The Fed is deeply divided, with more dissent than publicly shown.

Notes unusual volatility in FedWatch tool probabilities over six weeks, indicating instability.
Rebecca Walser

As long as accommodation continues, equities will run. Cheap credit fuels AI investment.

Highlights pushback against Oracle's debt financing vs. Mag7 free cash flow, calling for fiscal constraint during historic economic transition.
Asks about potential fiscal stimulus coupled with monetary stimulus.

Nicole
Rebecca Walser

Stimulus is positive for equities but may not translate to bonds, which react to risk. Accommodation devalues currency.

Points out Fed has stopped QT, pumped billions into economy, shifting to easing. If stock markets don't rally, bond market would be pricing excessive risk, forcing yields up. Notes 10-year yield dropped below 4% but is back over 4.1%, pricing in more risk.
Asks about stock picks (LIN, Visa) and three quick questions on AI revolution, Warner Bros., and Oracle.

Nicole
Rebecca Walser

AI revolution is at beginning stages, starting to monetize. Likes Visa for moving to blockchain. Would pause on Oracle due to debt use.

Calls Visa a textbook case of traditional finance adapting. Warner Bros. situation is 'capitalism at its best'.

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