The interim MOU is significant but not final; signing is delayed until Friday. Key unresolved issues include unfreezing Iranian assets and handling enriched uranium stockpiles. Israel's actions in Lebanon pose a major risk to the deal's durability.

Even if Hormuz reopens, it will take months for oil flows to normalize due to damaged facilities, rerouted ships, and sub-chartered vessels. Full recovery to pre-war levels could take years.

The MOU is unlikely to lead to permanent peace; it's a temporary ceasefire. Iran will remain on a war footing, seek nuclear weapons, and Israel will try to scuttle the deal. GCC countries will hedge and seek better relations with Iran.

The MOU reduces oil-driven inflation, allowing the Fed to hold rates and risk assets to rally. The dollar will soften as other central banks hike. AI trade remains strong but concentrated; Korea and Japan benefit from diversification.

Israel will try to sabotage the deal; the US is either unwilling or unable to stop Israel. GCC countries are hedging: some push for regime change, others seek better relations with Iran. The deal is a 'good cop/bad cop' game from Iran's perspective.