Israel's response and GCC hedging (with Abeer Abu Omar)

Israel will try to sabotage the deal; the US is either unwilling or unable to stop Israel. GCC countries are hedging: some push for regime change, others seek better relations with Iran. The deal is a 'good cop/bad cop' game from Iran's perspective.

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RUT

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Taylor's University, Malaysia 2.5
University
Julia Roknifard 6.0

Israel's response and GCC hedging (with Abeer Abu Omar)

wti

The deal is fragile; Israel may sabotage it, and Iran retains control of Hormuz. Oil supply remains uncertain, keeping prices rangebound.

Asks about the caveats remaining in the MOU.

Abeer Abu Omar
Julia Roknifard

The MOU is a deal about the possibility of a deal; Hormuz won't reopen immediately. Israel's campaign in southern Lebanon is a major barrier.

American and Iranian versions of the agreement were published but not yet analyzed in detail.
Asks about concessions made by each side.

Abeer Abu Omar
Julia Roknifard

The US may be using diplomacy as a smokescreen for low-intensity warfare. Key concession: unfreezing $14 billion of Iranian assets for goods/services. Iran may manage Hormuz and charge tolls, with the US paying for some countries.

The US is either unwilling or unable to stop Israel, which Iran sees as a 'good cop/bad cop' game.
Asks whether Israel will try to sabotage the deal.

Abeer Abu Omar
Julia Roknifard

Israel as a whole is unhappy with the deal and will try to sabotage it. Iran's parliament speaker sees US-Israel as playing 'good cop/bad cop'.

Whatever Netanyahu does is seen as coordinated with Trump.
Asks about the GCC's position and their relationship with the US.

Abeer Abu Omar
Julia Roknifard

Belligerent GCC states (e.g., UAE) push for regime change in Iran; others hedge and seek better relations with Iran. The US prioritizing Israel has caused GCC to rethink security alliances.

GCC countries felt left to defend themselves against cheap Iranian missiles and drones.

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