Gold Will Struggle to Match Recent Highs, Rabobank’s Foley Says

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Jane Foley 7.0

Gold Will Struggle to Match Recent Highs, Rabobank’s Foley Says

Gold

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The dollar has been one of the better performers recently; dollar weakness was mostly restricted to first five months of the year. Dollar strength has resumed after early year weakness, reflected in flat or stronger dollar index since July, supporting short-term upward dollar direction.

7/31/2025 2:28:48 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.52%	-0.52%

metals

Gold will struggle to match recent highs in the very near future; profit taking pushed in alongside a stronger dollar. The recent sharp rise in gold driven by FOMO and diversification theme may fade with the dollar strengthening; thus, metals prices are expected to decline cautiously in short term.

7/31/2025 2:28:48 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	+0.80%	-1.19%

What a move in gold. Extending losses after its steepest sell off in over a decade.

Host
Jane Foley of Rabobank debunking the US debasement trade theory.

Host
Jane Foley

Debasement would imply a move away from the dollar and US treasuries into assets such as gold but there's very little evidence of these flows.
The dollar weakness was strong in the first quarter, but since then the dollar index has gone nowhere since July.

Host
Jane Foley

The dollar weakness really happened in the first five months. More recently, the dollar has been one of the better performers.
Gold has ripped higher starting mid August and alongside that we also saw dollar strength.

Host
Jane Foley

Normally a stronger dollar would cause profit taking in gold. Many portfolios have been thinking about diversification this year so gold can be part of that. However, there's been a lot of FOMO recently and retail investors queued to buy gold, so some profit taking with the stronger dollar occurred.
Jane Foley

Going into next year, diversification is still a theme and gold could be part of it but gold will struggle to reach recent highs in the near future.

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