Oil prices are structurally higher ($104 Brent Q2 forecast) due to protracted supply disruptions (up to 9M bpd shortfall) and limited US export capacity. Demand destruction is occurring but insufficient to fill the gap. China is relatively insulated via inventory, but rising input costs (diesel, fertilizer) for agriculture threaten yields and push food prices higher, creating a broader commodity inflation risk.
Yields
NDX
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
oil sharp up
Bloomberg
5.5
Financial Media
Warren Patterson 9.0
Financial Media
Warren Patterson 9.0
4/30/2026 3:40:05 PM
wti
We're looking at an average of $104 for Brent over the second quarter. The market is pricing in a full closure through end of May.
| 4/30/2026 2:31:00 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -10.09% |
| 4/30/2026 1:25:28 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -10.09% |
| 4/30/2026 10:27:44 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -10.09% |
| 4/30/2026 8:02:59 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -10.09% |
| 4/29/2026 11:30:52 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -2.66% |
| 4/29/2026 2:08:01 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/29/2026 11:42:11 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/28/2026 11:31:52 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.65% |
| 4/28/2026 10:39:20 PM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | +0.83% | -1.25% |
| 4/28/2026 8:52:26 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.22% |
| 4/27/2026 7:39:37 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +8.74% | -8.74% |
| 4/27/2026 1:02:38 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/27/2026 10:29:21 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/24/2026 3:07:59 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 1:23:43 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 1:18:06 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 11:16:33 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +10.43% |
| 4/24/2026 11:01:37 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 12:09:41 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/23/2026 11:26:18 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +13.22% | +13.22% |
| 4/23/2026 10:38:04 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +13.22% | +19.83% |
| 4/23/2026 3:22:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +13.22% | +13.22% |
| 4/23/2026 2:06:54 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +13.22% | +13.22% |
| 4/23/2026 10:11:16 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +13.22% | +19.83% |
| 4/23/2026 10:11:16 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +13.22% | +19.83% |
| 4/22/2026 11:35:04 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +4.26% | +2.13% |
| 4/22/2026 7:34:33 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +4.26% | -2.13% |
| 4/22/2026 12:50:22 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +4.26% | +6.38% |
| 4/20/2026 11:58:40 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +4.60% | -4.60% |
| 4/20/2026 7:06:15 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +4.60% | -4.60% |
| 4/18/2026 2:40:06 AM | medium term down | 21 days later | +9.44% | -9.44% |
| 4/18/2026 2:18:29 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -11.32% |
| 4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -11.32% |
| 4/17/2026 4:22:48 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -2.74% |
| 4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/13/2026 2:27:08 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -2.74% |
| 4/12/2026 7:34:52 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -14.34% |
| 4/12/2026 3:41:23 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/12/2026 3:41:14 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/10/2026 10:10:32 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/10/2026 3:55:23 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +7.41% | +7.41% |
| 4/10/2026 1:31:13 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +7.41% | +7.41% |
| 4/10/2026 12:31:57 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -4.78% |
| 4/6/2026 10:30:45 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -14.68% | +7.34% |
| 4/6/2026 7:54:23 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -14.68% | -14.68% |
| 4/4/2026 7:49:11 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -14.27% | +7.13% |
| 4/3/2026 3:02:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 3/30/2026 3:30:54 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +10.88% | +5.44% |
| 3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -11.61% | -17.41% |
| 3/30/2026 2:04:13 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +10.88% | +16.32% |
| 3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +10.88% | +16.32% |
| 3/29/2026 5:07:24 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/28/2026 6:03:36 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/27/2026 11:07:21 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 3/25/2026 10:52:54 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +7.30% | -7.30% |
| 3/23/2026 9:56:47 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +5.70% |
| 3/21/2026 1:47:39 AM | long term sharp down | 60 days later | +9.61% | -14.42% |
| 3/20/2026 4:06:06 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +25.10% |
| 3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +16.74% |
| 3/13/2026 9:25:35 PM | medium term sharp up | 21 days later | +20.22% | +30.34% |
| 3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -2.87% |
| 3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -2.87% |
| 3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -8.61% |
| 3/11/2026 10:09:41 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.50% | +0.75% |
| 3/10/2026 9:18:14 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +16.19% | +16.19% |
| 3/10/2026 2:38:02 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +16.19% | -16.19% |
| 3/10/2026 12:08:58 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.16% | +7.16% |
| 3/9/2026 6:46:13 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +23.28% | +34.93% |
| 3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/9/2026 8:28:21 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/9/2026 6:55:49 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/8/2026 3:01:00 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.34% | -1.34% |
| 3/5/2026 10:50:58 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -6.02% |
| 3/5/2026 2:02:48 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 3/4/2026 2:05:06 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.01% | +4.52% |
| 3/4/2026 5:43:12 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +3.01% | -1.51% |
| 3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +26.94% |
| 3/3/2026 8:39:08 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
| 3/2/2026 8:34:28 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +18.20% | -18.20% |
| 2/25/2026 9:27:27 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +14.34% | +7.17% |
| 2/20/2026 2:32:12 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +7.42% | +3.71% |
| 2/20/2026 10:59:11 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +7.42% | +7.42% |
| 2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.46% | -0.73% |
| 2/19/2026 10:55:34 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +44.19% | -22.10% |
| 2/11/2026 10:46:14 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.82% | -1.82% |
| 2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.82% | -1.82% |
| 1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +3.57% | +1.79% |
| 1/29/2026 9:02:44 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.87% | -0.94% |
| 1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 1/16/2026 7:33:17 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +2.02% | +3.03% |
| 1/12/2026 6:04:30 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.62% | -1.62% |
| 1/10/2026 2:50:05 AM | medium term down | 21 days later | +4.44% | -4.44% |
| 1/9/2026 6:25:43 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.12% | +0.06% |
| 1/7/2026 9:00:08 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 12/22/2025 11:02:38 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -0.51% | +0.26% |
| 12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.51% | -0.51% |
| 12/22/2025 7:55:54 AM | long term down | 62 days later | +13.58% | -13.58% |
| 12/19/2025 10:53:44 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +2.57% | -2.57% |
| 12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.12% | +0.12% |
| 12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.98% | -2.98% |
| 12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +2.98% | +1.49% |
| 12/17/2025 2:09:01 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +3.97% | -1.99% |
| 12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +3.70% | -5.55% |
| 12/16/2025 11:22:24 PM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | +2.13% | -3.19% |
| 11/24/2025 10:29:53 AM | long term cautious down | 62 days later | +4.62% | -2.31% |
| 10/23/2025 2:05:44 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -1.66% | -2.49% |
| 10/22/2025 11:01:29 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.65% | +1.33% |
| 10/21/2025 9:16:26 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +4.80% | -2.40% |
| 10/20/2025 6:00:17 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +6.04% | -3.02% |
| 9/30/2025 11:07:33 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.15% | +0.15% |
| 9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.15% | +0.07% |
| 9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -1.09% | +0.55% |
| 9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.09% | +1.09% |
| 9/24/2025 7:52:42 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.29% | -1.29% |
| 9/9/2025 8:33:16 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.58% | -0.58% |
| 9/8/2025 11:19:17 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +1.07% | +1.07% |
| 9/8/2025 11:11:54 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +1.07% | +0.53% |
| 9/8/2025 8:18:05 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.07% | -1.07% |
| 9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.67% | -1.67% |
| 9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +1.91% | -0.96% |
| 9/4/2025 11:19:15 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.91% | -2.91% |
| 8/18/2025 11:10:24 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.93% | +3.93% |
| 8/15/2025 11:21:59 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +2.18% | -2.18% |
| 8/14/2025 11:46:57 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.65% | +0.65% |
| 8/11/2025 10:07:32 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.40% | -0.20% |
| 8/8/2025 8:23:48 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.84% | +0.84% |
| 8/8/2025 10:13:14 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | -0.84% | +1.27% |
| 8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.61% | +0.61% |
| 8/4/2025 11:29:13 PM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 8/4/2025 9:08:09 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +0.92% |
