Iran War Impact on Global Economy and Oil Markets (with David Westin)

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NDX

RUT

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RockCreek 6.0
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Afsaneh Beschloss 8.5

Iran War Impact on Global Economy and Oil Markets (with David Westin)

wti

if oil prices stay up Conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping, creating supply constraints beyond just price increases

2 calls

-44

reliably incorrect, often opposite to market

4/11/2026 2:00:44 AM	short term up	7 days later	-9.56%	-9.56%

yields

interest rates would hike...there might be a scenario of a hike, which is the opposite of what we would have thought a few months ago Higher oil prices ? higher inflation ? potential Fed rate hikes despite previous dovish expectations

3 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

4/11/2026 2:00:44 AM	short term up	7 days later	-1.09%	-1.09%
11/8/2025 1:27:42 AM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	-0.34%	-0.17%

Introduces Afsaneh Beschloss of RockCreek as expert on Iran/Gulf region, asks about second-order effects of Iran conflict on global economy.

David Westin
Afsaneh Beschloss

If oil prices stay up, global economy faces lower growth, higher inflation, and interest rates could hike - opposite of expectations from a few months ago.

Kevin Warsh was selected by president to reduce rates, but first act might be neutral or even a hike due to conflict repercussions.
Afsaneh Beschloss

Biggest repercussion is outside US in oil-importing countries facing price and supply issues, with lower-income countries rationing energy for basic needs.

Even if oil moves from $100-150 range, supply constraints are critical issue seen in recent weeks.
Asks about impact on China given its friendly relations with Iran.

David Westin
Afsaneh Beschloss

China and India heavily impacted as ~30% of China's energy and large share of India's comes from Strait of Hormuz region.

While US energy intensity decreased due to services/tech shift, goods imported from China/India remain energy-intensive and are getting hit badly.
Afsaneh Beschloss

China diversifying energy sources through EVs, nuclear (building plants in 2-3 years vs US 10 years), but short-term still impacted.

Key question is whether Chinese, Indian, or Russian-protected ships could safely navigate Strait vs Western-aligned tankers.
Asks about impact on Africa and rest of developing world beyond major players.

David Westin
Afsaneh Beschloss

Poor countries like Philippines/Bangladesh face dual problem: can't afford spot prices and suppliers prefer richer buyers, exacerbating their crisis.

Combined with AI shifts, climate issues (Africa water shortages), and war impacts could create major problems, especially European immigration pressures.

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