Kelsey Berro from JPMorgan discusses key metrics to watch in the upcoming jobs report: job growth breadth, wage trends, and the U6 underemployment rate. She argues the report won't help the Fed, which remains focused on inflation driven by energy. On Fed communication, she notes the shift away from forward guidance is already underway and expects continuity on the dot plot despite new Chairman Walsh's skepticism.
implicit
implicit
explicit
inferred
inferred
JPMorgan
9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Kelsey Berro 9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Kelsey Berro 9.0
US jobs report
6/4/2026 11:01:45 PM
dxy
No direct mention of the dollar. The Fed's data-dependent stance and stable rate expectations suggest no major dollar moves.
metals
No direct mention of metals. Given the focus on energy-driven inflation and stable yields, metals (typically inflation hedges) may remain rangebound without a clear catalyst.
ndx
Equities have decoupled from oil, suggesting resilience. However, the Fed's inflation concerns and energy price risks create caution. The guest's neutral-to-positive labor market view supports cautious optimism.
rut
The guest notes job growth is concentrated in healthcare (not cyclical) but hopes for broadening. Small caps (RUT) are sensitive to domestic labor market health; cautious optimism on broadening supports a cautious up view.
wti
What's really driving the inflation outlook right now is energy. The correlation between rates and oil has remained very high.
| 5/13/2026 2:55:57 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +6.52% |
| 5/13/2026 8:05:25 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +3.26% |
| 5/12/2026 8:21:02 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +3.78% |
| 5/12/2026 5:23:45 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +3.78% |
| 5/12/2026 12:00:24 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/11/2026 6:43:48 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -9.81% | -4.90% |
| 5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/5/2026 9:11:37 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +3.14% | +1.57% |
| 4/20/2026 6:16:40 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +6.45% | -3.22% |
| 4/9/2026 8:26:09 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +8.80% | -4.40% |
| 3/27/2026 4:46:35 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/16/2026 6:26:04 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -8.40% | -4.20% |
| 3/4/2026 8:50:44 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.01% | +3.01% |
| 3/3/2026 2:24:23 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
| 3/3/2026 11:01:30 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +26.94% |
yields
The guest expects continuity in Fed communication and data-dependent framework, suggesting no major shift in rate expectations. The bond market is already weaning off constant communication, implying stable yields.
