What The Fed Just Did Behind That Unanimous Vote

Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting marks a break from the Powell era: he scrapped forward guidance, refused to file his own rate forecast, and launched five task forces to overhaul Fed communications, data, balance sheet, productivity, and inflation frameworks. Half the committee wants to hike rates. Markets reacted with a sharp selloff in gold (down ~$150), a stronger dollar, and a flattening yield curve. Danielle argues this is a buying opportunity for gold as a crisis hedge, warns that private credit and CRE are already showing stress, and says the market should watch Treasury volatility as the Fed goes silent.

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implicit

Oil

explicit

implicit

private credit (sharp down)

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Danielle D. Martino Booth 7.5

What The Fed Just Did Behind That Unanimous Vote | DiMartino Booth

dxy

The dollar jumped after the hawkish Fed decision. Higher rates and a more restrictive Fed typically support the dollar.

metals

If Warsh maintains higher for longer and facilitates a blowup in private credit that bleeds into private equity, then this was a great buying opportunity for gold. In times of financial crisis, gold is where to hide.

1 calls

+28

reliable positive edge across multiple calls

11/20/2025 10:15:09 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+11.71%	+5.85%

ndx

Stocks fell broadly. Higher rates and less forward guidance create uncertainty. Margin debt at record $1.42 trillion suggests vulnerability. Tech/growth stocks (NDX) are particularly sensitive to higher rates.

rut

Stocks fell after the hawkish Fed. Small caps (RUT) are more sensitive to higher rates and tighter financial conditions. Bankruptcies up 38.4% YoY and stress in private credit/CRE suggests headwinds for smaller companies.

yields

The market should pay very close attention to the volatility in the Treasury market right now. Things are going to be very bumpy.

5 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

4/11/2026 1:21:31 AM	short term down	7 days later	-1.09%	+1.09%
4/8/2026 6:33:49 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.86%	+0.86%
4/1/2026 12:32:11 AM	short term down	5 days later	+0.70%	-0.70%
9/23/2025 12:30:00 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.14%	+0.07%
8/15/2025 5:52:45 PM	short term down	7 days later	-1.52%	+1.52%

Show all 5 yields results

Jeremy Saffron

Warsh scrapped forward guidance, refused to file his own rate forecast, and half the committee wants to raise rates this year. Gold ran up to ~4383 then dropped nearly $150, down >2%. Stocks fell, dollar jumped.
Danielle D. Martino Booth

Warsh got a unanimous vote, which was shocking. Many Fed officials have known QE was a disaster and that Fed speakers speak too much. They were happy to support a more succinct, less leaky institution.
Jeremy Saffron

The Fed's own inflation forecast jumped to 3.6% (core 3.3%), no improvement expected. Margin debt hit a record $1.42 trillion. Is the Fed about to raise rates into a break?
Danielle D. Martino Booth

The panic in the bond market today was surreal. Yield curve flattened dramatically. Bankruptcies are up 38.4% YoY. Warsh is trying to enter new data into Fed policymaking. When asked if policy is tight, he said 'it depends'—housing yes, financial markets no.
Jeremy Saffron

Is less guidance actually more credible if inflation is still 3%+? Powell over-explained and boxed the Fed in.
Danielle D. Martino Booth

Less guidance is absolutely more critical. If energy prices hold, we'll get negative headline CPI prints. Warsh wants a new way to measure inflation. His five task forces will be completed by year-end—that's light speed for an institution born in 1913.
Jeremy Saffron

Gold ran up to 4383, then slammed nearly $150 after the hawkish Fed. Textbook reaction: higher rates, stronger dollar, gold sold. But central banks aren't selling. Is this dip a gift or is gold's run done?
Danielle D. Martino Booth

If Warsh maintains higher for longer and facilitates a blowup in private credit that bleeds into private equity, then this was a great buying opportunity for gold. In times of financial crisis, gold is where to hide.
Jeremy Saffron

What one data point is the market ignoring heading into summer?
Danielle D. Martino Booth

The market should pay very close attention to volatility in the Treasury market. If Warsh succeeds in not allowing Fed speak, we could hear nobody from the Fed until Monday—a vacuum for addicted investors.
Jeremy Saffron

If private credit is where the blowup starts, talk about that trigger. Is it defaults, redemption pressure, stale marks getting written down, or lenders refusing to refinance?
Danielle D. Martino Booth

We're seeing more losses on CRE, inability of Airbnb jocks to refinance, serious pain points exacerbated if rates stay here. Private credit is already blowing up, private equity is following. Let's see if it bleeds into public markets—if bond spreads finally begin to move.
Danielle D. Martino Booth

I'm hopefully optimistic. What Warsh did at the podium closely resembles the last chapter of 'Fed Up' that I wrote. These are things I've been arguing for every one of his task forces for a decade.
Jeremy Saffron

Warsh institutionalizing the change he's talked about for years. Half the committee wanting to raise rates, a chairman tearing up the playbook, gold down nearly 2%. Higher for longer just got real.

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