Goldilocks backdrop supports risk, UK diversification (with Tom, Oli)

Yields

implicit

RUT

Oil

explicit

USD

Invesco 8.5
Asset Manager $1000.00B
Ben Gutteridge 7.5

Goldilocks backdrop supports risk, UK diversification (with Tom, Oli)

metals

$5000 isn't an unreasonable target... Gold has structural tailwinds. Explicitly mentions a $5000 target for gold, citing structural drivers like central bank buying and debt monetization, while acknowledging volatility.

4 calls

-8

slightly worse than random

1/29/2026 7:06:10 AM	medium term up	20 days later	-0.63%	-0.63%
10/14/2025 1:12:51 AM	medium term up	20 days later	-10.62%	-10.62%

ndx

Describes offsetting forces in AI capex (spenders vs. revenue collectors) creating a stalemate, and suggests US markets are 'a little more pedestrian.' This implies a lack of clear directional momentum for tech/NDX in the near term.

Asks about the next catalyst for markets.

Host
Ben Gutteridge

The macro backdrop is pretty helpful - resilient US growth, benign inflation. That Goldilocks backdrop supports risk-taking.

The big AI challenge is shareholders concerned about capex straining free cash flow.
Asks about the bigger AI risk: too much capex or disruption.

Host
Ben Gutteridge

If AI capex continues unabated, it reveals itself in share price weakness for big spenders. If they hold back, revenue collectors don't win. There are offsetting forces.
Asks about diversification into international equities.

Host
Ben Gutteridge

The darling is the UK. Rate cuts could support the economy in H2. There are great businesses with undemanding valuations.

Mentions energy, tobacco, mining stocks trading at discounts to international peers.
Asks about the software/AI disruption and portfolio hedges.

Host
Ben Gutteridge

We would go underweight software broadly. The earnings story is real but hard to pick winners. Diversifying internationally is a hedge against a non-recessionary AI-led sell-off.

For a recessionary outcome, long-duration bonds would help. Gold has structural tailwinds from central bank buying and debt monetization.
Asks for a gold price target.

Host
Ben Gutteridge

$5000 isn't an unreasonable target. It's a very volatile asset class. China may step in to buy on weakness.

SignalTube

markets at a glance