Market is a tale of two tapes. The AI half is a structural buy-the-dip on a multi-year capex cycle. The other half is a 2022 macro re-run, hostage to oil & yields. A 10yr at 5% is the pain threshold that challenges tech's valuation offset. The oil curve is the primary tell; lack of conviction for a return to $70s caps broader upside. When oil finally breaks, the trade is a violent rotation into the most beaten-down cyclicals.
implicit
explicit
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Citigroup
8.4
Investment Bank $1800.00B
Scott Chronert 8.0
Investment Bank $1800.00B
Scott Chronert 8.0
5/20/2026 8:07:16 PM
ndx
The AI half of the market needs to digest Q1 gains... but pullbacks are buying opportunities. The persistence of the capex tailwind is mission-critical.
| 5/4/2026 8:42:52 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +4.66% | +2.33% |
| 4/30/2026 2:09:30 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.21% | +3.21% |
| 11/7/2025 10:30:49 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -3.17% | +1.58% |
| 10/28/2025 5:13:47 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.56% | -0.28% |
| 10/28/2025 3:52:52 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.56% | -0.56% |
| 10/24/2025 8:04:31 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.59% | +0.59% |
| 9/23/2025 7:37:45 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.31% | +0.31% |
| 9/8/2025 9:12:11 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +3.24% | +3.24% |
| 9/8/2025 4:30:00 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +1.90% | +0.95% |
| 9/4/2025 1:39:08 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.83% | +0.83% |
| 8/29/2025 9:52:50 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +6.59% | +3.29% |
| 7/22/2025 2:32:12 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.92% | +2.92% |
wti
I'm watching the oil futures curve more than I have in quite some time. We need conviction that oil will fall back to a $70 plus or minus level. We're not there yet.
| 5/4/2026 8:42:52 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -4.11% | -2.05% |
| 4/30/2026 11:03:58 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -10.09% |
| 4/10/2026 1:26:19 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -14.34% |
| 3/4/2026 9:38:13 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +11.49% | -11.49% |
| 1/14/2026 9:07:22 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.94% | +1.94% |
| 10/22/2025 9:54:16 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.65% | +1.33% |
