The S&P 500 is a bifurcated market: half trades on AI theme with strong earnings, the other half trades like 2022 with oil/rate headwinds. Expect digestion phase near term but constructive for balance of year. Oil futures curve is key to watch.
explicit
implicit
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Citigroup
8.5
Investment Bank $1800.00B
Scott Chronert 8.5
Investment Bank $1800.00B
Scott Chronert 8.5
5/20/2026 8:07:16 PM
ndx
The AI half needs to digest gains but the picks and shovels play has a long way to go; NASDAQ is pricing in 2026-2027 earnings, not 2028-2029.
wti
I'm watching the oil futures curve more than I have in quite some time. We want to see conviction that 100+ crude is on a path down to $70 plus or minus. We're not there yet.
| 5/8/2026 10:00:56 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -6.03% | -3.01% |
| 5/7/2026 6:00:45 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -6.83% | -10.25% |
| 4/10/2026 1:26:19 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -14.34% |
| 3/4/2026 9:38:13 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +11.49% | -11.49% |
| 1/14/2026 9:07:22 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.94% | +1.94% |
| 10/22/2025 9:54:16 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.65% | +1.33% |
yields
If the 10-year goes to 4.80-5%, it's a different story.
| 5/19/2026 10:44:11 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.96% | -0.96% |
| 4/30/2026 11:03:58 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.75% |
| 4/30/2026 2:09:30 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 3/25/2026 10:44:32 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.38% | +1.19% |
| 3/12/2026 12:07:11 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.61% | -0.30% |
| 1/28/2026 1:50:23 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -3.50% | +3.50% |
| 1/21/2026 12:47:18 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -1.81% | -1.81% |
| 12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -0.10% | +0.10% |
| 10/24/2025 8:04:31 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +3.40% | -1.70% |
| 9/11/2025 11:25:08 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.18% |
| 9/4/2025 1:39:08 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.32% | +1.32% |
| 9/2/2025 9:41:20 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -3.92% | +1.96% |
| 9/2/2025 8:40:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.92% | -3.92% |
