I think that's right. Unfortunately, most of the data for CPI are still collected by hand. They should be collecting them this month. They haven't been collecting them this month. That's going to be a major challenge for the October report. Uh right now prediction markets expect the shutdown to last even through mid November. So you have to start worrying a little bit about November data quality as well.

I don't think that there's really that much new that we've learned here. The inflation print did come in a little bit lower than expected. I would say a lot of that's probably the shelter category which has been declining for the last few years for reasons that are well understood. From month to month, it's been a little bit erratic. Some months a little too high, some months a little too low. Probably just reflecting that they don't have an unlimited data sample, but I think the general pattern is pretty clear. This is a key reason that we think underlying trend inflation is falling. Uh, and we think we're still headed in the right direction.

I think so. I think the debate at the Fed is all about the labor market. There are some subtleties there, especially because we don't have the September employment report and it might be a while before we get official data. Uh we like most market participants are trying to do the best we can with alternative data. They looked a little bit mixed in September. Looked like job growth was maybe a touch better, but measures of labor market tightness or labor market strength continued to decline. None of this though is probably a substitute for the official data. So for now, I think the path that the Fed laid out, there's really no reason to deviate from that path. And then we have somewhat muddy picture on on the labor market, but also this divergence between the labor market indicators and other trackers of GDP. It feels to me that's where a lot of the debate has to settle in the next few months, especially in the absence of government data. What are we going to use to figure out? I mean, you have people saying the economy is reacelerating or and and actually has more juice into next year and others are kind of thinking we're at stall speed.

Yeah, if you look at the jobs numbers, certainly they've been a lot lower than what we're accustomed to over the course of this year. But GDP growth, if we average the first three uh three quarters to try to smooth through some of the tariff distortions related to front loing, I would say GDP growth at about 2% which is pretty solid to some degree in moderation. This is just going to be normal going forward. Productivity growth has been better this cycle than last cycle. So GDP growth in the neighborhood of 2% coupled with softer jobs numbers than we're used to because immigration is now much lower and because our population is aging in moderation. That's what we should all expect to see.

I think the concern at the moment is that the jobs numbers haven't just declined in line with slower labor supply growth. They've declined more than that. That's why the unemployment rates come up a bit. And if you broaden your perspective beyond the unemployment rate to many measures of labor market tightness, we think things look even worse than that 4.3% unemployment rate suggested.

So a little bit of both, but the lesson we think is take the labor market data seriously. There is something to be worried about here. I think the case for lowering rates to make sure that the labor market doesn't continue to deteriorate makes sense. Now, having said that, we think I think most investors think I think the Fed thinks that we're probably experiencing the peak drag from tariffs now. Have not yet through Q3 gotten much of a boost from the fiscal bill, but that going forward next year, those two effects will be more offsetting. She should have a little more confidence that the economy can operate near potential growth next year. I just think that probably Fed officials feel like, and I agree, it doesn't make sense to take the gamble of finding out if that's how things turn out.