The Appropriate Response From Central Banks Might Be To Hike Rates, Cutting Would Be A Giant Mistake

wti

The oil market is bifurcated... The middle east crude oil that goes to Asia is now trading at $16070... oil that goes to the United States is still trading around $95... it's never been $80 like we've seen now. Describes a structurally fractured market with extreme regional price disparities ($95-$170), indicating severe supply disruption and upward price pressure. Argues a 10-million-barrel deficit must be resolved by prices rising until demand is destroyed.

3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM	long term cautious down	60 days later	+13.02%	-6.51%
3/12/2026 8:50:04 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-2.42%	-3.63%
3/4/2026 3:33:17 PM	short term up	5 days later	+3.01%	+3.01%
2/20/2026 3:49:52 PM	short term up	7 days later	+7.42%	+7.42%
1/6/2026 7:30:15 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+11.43%	+11.43%
1/6/2026 4:06:05 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+11.43%	+11.43%

Show all 6 wti results

yields

we're going to get more inflation than we're going to get a reduction in growth... nominal GDP's going to go up. And that means that the appropriate response for interest rates to go higher... central banks might be to hike rates. Thesis is that oil-driven inflation will outpace growth slowdown, raising nominal GDP, which mechanically requires higher interest rates. Explicitly rules out cuts as a mistake.

3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.23%	+0.12%
3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+2.59%	+1.30%
3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.23%	-0.12%
3/12/2026 8:50:04 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-0.61%	-0.91%
3/9/2026 3:08:20 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+4.98%	+4.98%
3/4/2026 4:03:19 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.24%	-0.24%
3/4/2026 3:33:17 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.24%	-0.24%
2/20/2026 3:49:52 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	+4.74%	+2.37%
1/6/2026 10:41:18 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+2.05%	+2.05%
1/6/2026 7:30:15 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+2.05%	+2.05%
1/6/2026 4:06:05 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+2.05%	+2.05%
1/5/2026 3:34:19 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.81%	+0.81%
11/14/2025 5:39:52 PM	short term up	7 days later	-2.30%	-2.30%
11/13/2025 11:11:01 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-0.96%	-0.48%
10/21/2025 10:16:55 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.11%	-0.56%
10/14/2025 3:56:23 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+1.06%	+1.06%
9/29/2025 3:25:33 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.34%	-0.17%
9/17/2025 1:26:35 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.39%
9/15/2025 3:58:32 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+2.91%	-1.45%
9/4/2025 11:05:46 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+2.10%	+1.05%
9/4/2025 9:35:50 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+2.10%	+1.05%
8/28/2025 4:47:53 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-2.91%	+1.45%
8/26/2025 4:19:00 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.92%	-0.46%
8/26/2025 4:05:31 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	-5.00%	-7.50%
8/26/2025 1:00:15 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	-5.00%	-7.50%
8/25/2025 3:41:18 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+0.45%	-0.22%
8/20/2025 6:53:54 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-6.88%	-3.44%
8/19/2025 5:49:35 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.49%	+0.24%
8/14/2025 2:49:30 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.51%	+1.76%
8/7/2025 2:21:54 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-1.82%	+0.91%
8/5/2025 3:48:43 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+0.90%	+1.35%
8/4/2025 3:58:24 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.88%	+0.94%
7/19/2025 1:58:49 AM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-2.26%	+1.13%

Show all 33 yields results

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