Fed's Bowman: Fed should remain ready to adjust policy toward neutral unless job market improves

Yields

NDX sharp down , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Federal Reserve 9.5
Central Bank
Michelle Bowman 7.0

Fed's Bowman: Fed should remain ready to adjust policy toward neutral unless job market improves

ndx

disappointing news on AI could lead to a sharp decline in equity prices Bowman explicitly links AI disappointment to sharp equity decline, implying NDX (tech-heavy) vulnerability.

23 calls

+2

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

1/13/2026 2:09:12 AM	short term down	5 days later	+0.25%	-0.25%
1/12/2026 10:19:49 AM	short term down	6 days later	-0.83%	+0.83%
11/12/2025 7:56:09 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+2.45%	+1.23%
11/10/2025 11:28:21 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-2.87%	+1.44%
11/4/2025 10:02:59 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.03%	+0.02%
9/24/2025 7:15:12 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.16%	-0.58%
9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.17%	+1.17%
8/28/2025 11:22:55 PM	short term up	5 days later	-+0.00%	-+0.00%
8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM	short term sharp up	8 days later	-0.83%	-1.25%
8/21/2025 1:01:24 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+0.29%	+0.14%
8/6/2025 4:32:08 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.92%	-0.96%
8/6/2025 4:30:01 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.92%	-0.96%

Show all 12 ndx results

Introduces breaking news from Fed Governor Bowman and directs to Steve for details.

Sarah
Reports Fed Governor Bowman's dovish remarks: Fed should remain ready to adjust policy toward neutral unless job market improves; she has downbeat views on labor market, concerned businesses may begin layoffs; private payroll may have started falling; labor market can appear stable until it doesn't.

She is not satisfied with last year's 75bps cuts, wants proactive focus on employment risks, sees underlying inflation mostly reflecting tariffs (effects will fade), policy as modestly restrictive, expects solid economic expansion from deregulation/tax cuts. However, she's concerned disappointing AI news could lead to sharp decline in equity prices.

Steve
Asks if Bowman's stance suggests potential dissents if Fed pauses in January.

Sarah
Agrees it's possible Bowman is setting herself up to oppose a January pause, especially with limited jobs data before then; she is very proactive and concerned about job market outlook.

Steve
Shifts topic to breaking news on Fed chair race, citing Trump's comments about Kevin Hassett.

Sarah
Donald Trump

Praises Kevin Hassett's TV performance, says he wants to keep him in current role rather than move him to Fed chair.

Implies Hassett is more valuable communicating publicly than as a less-communicative Fed chair.
Notes Hassett's odds plunged, helping Kevin Warsh's chances, and asks Steve for analysis.

Sarah
Explains decline in Hassett's odds followed criminal subpoena of Jay Powell, making a Trump-aligned pick less palatable; markets prefer more independent Fed chair.

Ironically, Hassett's strong TV performance made Trump want to keep him in current communicative role, as Fed chair would be inappropriate for promoting administration policies.

Steve

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