Longer-term outlook for oil has brightened, says Rapidan's McNally

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Rapidan Energy Group 1.0
Industry Research Firm
Bob McNally 8.0

Longer-term outlook for oil has brightened, says Rapidan's McNally

oil

wti

Flat prices are heading down all year. Based on analysis of supply/demand trends pointing to oversupply, price action (downward trend, curve moving to contango), and buildup of oil on the water.

12 calls

+18

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

10/20/2025 10:01:23 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+6.04%	-3.02%
10/20/2025 9:50:44 PM	short term sharp down	6 days later	+6.04%	-9.05%
8/15/2025 10:37:13 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+2.18%	+1.09%

Show all 3 wti results

Asks if Iran will be a flashpoint for energy markets given escalating tensions and Russian involvement.

Brian
Bob McNally

Assigns a 70% probability of renewed Israeli strikes on Iran in H1, but notes traders discount material supply disruption, citing the muted market reaction to the 2019 Abqaiq attack.

Does not foresee a major US military campaign, but selective US strikes/sanctions if Iran kills protesters. Iran, Russia, and Venezuela will feature on the oil market screen this year.
Asks how McNally sees supply/demand now and in coming months, noting high floating storage and disagreement on estimates.

Brian
Bob McNally

States the market is heading toward oversupply, with flat prices heading down all year and the curve moving into contango.

Cites rare disagreement on near-term outlook, with estimates like IEA's 4+ mb/d surplus. Uses price action (downward trend, curve structure, oil-on-water buildup) as evidence. Raises the key question of who will hold a ~$50 floor.
Asks how low OPEC+ will let oil go ($50s? $40s?) and if they will reverse course to pull oil off the market.

Brian
Bob McNally

Believes OPEC+ will act to prevent a collapse into the $30s or $40s if the market gets sloppy to the downside.

Cites OPEC+ communiqués signaling readiness to act, potentially undoing all recent production hikes. Acknowledges action may be late or too small, but the intention is there.

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