Canada’s Economy Is ‘Dying’ As S&P 500 Heads To 16,000, Here’s When

3/24/2026 12:01:05 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.06%	-0.53%
3/18/2026 12:21:37 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-3.94%	-1.97%
3/3/2026 8:52:57 PM	short term up	5 days later	+26.94%	+26.94%

12/9/2025 11:46:52 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+0.43%	+0.22%
12/8/2025 2:37:40 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-1.67%	-1.67%
9/17/2025 12:40:48 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.19%

Bitcoin has been diverging from the S&P 500, breaking down while equities rally. Bitcoin has historically been a leading indicator for equity futures.

David

Jim Thorne

Bitcoin's breakdown is a generational buying opportunity. The relationship with equities is broken short-term, but long-term fundamentals are constructive. Bitcoin at 60K is a buy; it will reach 150K eventually.

Bitcoin maxis are impatient, tourists moved to parabolic stocks. Scott Bessent's comments broke momentum, but now he says they're working on a strategic reserve. At the 200-week moving average, it's a good time to buy.

Does Bitcoin's decline signal an equity correction?

David

Jim Thorne

No, Bitcoin and equities have separate narratives now. A 5-10% correction can happen anytime for any reason, but not signaled by Bitcoin.

The world does not have enough compute. Memory is the most important thing. If you missed Micron, shame on you.

Canada had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, a technical recession. The government denies it. Pierre Poilievre cited household debt, cost of living, and job losses.

David

Jim Thorne

Canada is in denial about weakened economic foundations over decades. It's dying of cancer, not a heart attack. The Bank of Canada is incompetent for not cutting rates further.

Canada has negative immigration, negative productivity growth, so the neutral rate (star) declines. The Bank of Canada doing nothing is tightening. Supply shocks are not inflationary. There is no inflation in the data.

Tiff Macklem says US trade conflict diminished Canada's prospects. Is that fair?

David

Jim Thorne

They're deflecting. Canada was sick before tariffs. No competitive advantage in advanced manufacturing, too much regulation, green virtue industrial policy. Macklem talking about raising rates is 'Keynesian brain rot'.

The US is deregulating fast to grow out of debt. Canada needs to stop fighting Trump and adjust. Carney and Ford are pivoting to 'Fortress North America'.

Canada's GDP breakdown shows real estate at 13.2%, mining/oil & gas at only 5.1%. Manufacturing is shrinking. What is Canada's competitive advantage?

David

Jim Thorne

Canada's competitive advantage should be mining and energy, not real estate. The country got away from itself. Structural adjustment away from real estate should be done by growing other sectors, not attacking real estate.

Canada came out of the global financial crisis lucky and wasted the lead. Now they face five years of painful adjustment. Bay Street and Ottawa are in denial.

Carney and Ford are pivoting from defiance to 'Fortress North America' ahead of USMCA renegotiation. What should be done?

David

Jim Thorne

Carney is trying to move the Liberals to the center. A deal will be cut. The Bank of Canada should cut rates another 100 bps and expedite pipelines and LNG approvals.

Canada's economic future is with the US, not China or Europe. The US is more dependent on China trade than Canada is. Canada needs to embrace natural resources.

Is Canada-China trade the future for diversification?

David

Jim Thorne

It's performative. Our economic future is with the United States. Canada needs to derisk, not decouple.

The US is more dependent on China trade than Canada is. All this is performative in NAFTA negotiations.

Are you optimistic Canada's economy will turn around in the next couple quarters?

David

Jim Thorne

Canada has a tough couple of years. The US will run hot with strong nominal GDP growth, supply-side economics, and productivity. S&P earnings will grow 15-16% this year, reaching $650 by 2031.

Trump will get a deal with Iran, oil and gold are selling off which confirms that. Oil going to $60. The US will grow its way out of debt. Canada will be dragged along.

The TSX has outperformed the S&P year-to-date and one-year. Can that continue?

David

Jim Thorne

No. Canada benefited from energy and gold run-ups which are ending. Oil going to $60. RBC at 3.6x tangible book vs Bank of America at 1.6x is extreme home bias and very risky.

Canadians have Trump derangement syndrome manifesting as extreme home bias. The TSX financial sector is overvalued.

What sectors do you like most, jurisdiction agnostic?

David

Jim Thorne

Memory (Micron). We don't have enough compute. DRAM has capacity constraints. Micron could have $150 earnings in 2028-29, making it a $3,000 stock at 20x multiple.

Google's white paper doesn't change the compute need. Short-term traders are whipping stuff around without doing fundamental research. Buy the fear, sell the greed.

HSBC says US Treasuries are in a danger zone above 4.5%. Are they right?

David

Jim Thorne

4.5% is the line in the sand. Trump will cut a deal with Iran, rates will go down. The market is wrong to think the Fed will raise rates. Inflation is not there.

Full-time jobs are negative, unit labor costs are very low, trim mean PCE shows no inflation. The curve will drop once a deal is done.

Is the gold re-rating over?

David

Jim Thorne

Still bullish on gold and commodities till the end of the decade. Parabolic moves are to be sold. Wait for gold to settle through summer, then a wonderful buying opportunity.

If you're going to run the real economy hot, you need commodities. Follow the Charlie Munger rule: buy when an asset trades back to its upward-sloping 200-week moving average.

Final thoughts on TSX, S&P, gold, Bitcoin?

David

Jim Thorne

S&P will be around 16,000 by 2031. We're in a secular bull market with rolling periods of parabolic moves and oversold conditions. Buy the fear, sell the greed.

Be nimble and recycle capital. If Bitcoin went parabolic, I'd sell it. Same with gold. We're going much higher.

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