Oil price scenarios and central bank response (with Lisa Abramowitz)

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Rystad Energy 7.5
Energy
Jorge Leon 7.5

Oil price scenarios and central bank response (with Lisa Abramowitz)

wti

$110 oil averages would trim global growth by 1ppt and boost inflation. Scenario analysis based on prolonged conflict and Strait closure implies upward price pressure.

6 calls

+18

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

3/19/2026 6:07:45 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	-0.46%	-0.69%
3/2/2026 6:36:00 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+18.20%	+27.30%
1/5/2026 6:39:52 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+4.15%	-2.07%

Show all 3 wti results

yields

There is a lot of possibilities at this moment if the war continues that we are going to see actually increases in interest rates as I said on April the 30th. Argues central banks may hike to combat inflation from oil shock, despite growth impact.

1 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

Asks about forward curve pointing to de-escalation.

Lisa Abramowitz
Jorge Leon

Market trying to understand escalation/de-escalation; should brace for prolonged conflict and Strait closure.

Notes deadline and attack on Car Island create uncertainty.
Asks thresholds for growth vs inflationary shock.

Lisa Abramowitz
Jorge Leon

$110 oil averages would trim global growth by 1ppt (3% to 2%) and boost inflation, complicating macro outlook.

Notes ECB and Fed meetings April 30th; possibility of rate hikes if war continues.
Asks why next move would be hike not cut given growth hit.

Cites PIMCO view that it would hit growth.

Lisa Abramowitz
Jorge Leon

Central banks' mandate is fighting inflation; supply shock requires killing inflation for medium-term outlook, even if it hurts short-term growth.

Increasing rates to kill inflation is sensible to exit conflict.
Asks if this is worst disruption ever, comparable to 1970s.

Cites IEA calling it worst ever.

Lisa Abramowitz
Jorge Leon

Mixed: world less oil-intensive now (less serious), but double crisis of oil and gas (more serious). Duration is key variable.

Focus should be on how long crisis lasts.

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