Bank of America CEO Moynihan on US Economy, Investor Day, World Cup

Yields cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX up , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

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Bank of America 8.5
Investment Bank $3040.00B
Brian Moynihan 9.0

Bank of America CEO Moynihan on US Economy, Investor Day, World Cup

ndx

The interviewee's core thesis is a growing economy (2.4%), a resilient consumer, and the return of 'animal spirits' in IPOs and M&A due to policy clarity and a normalizing rate structure. This positive macro and corporate activity environment strongly implies a supportive backdrop for equity markets, including growth-oriented indices like the NDX. The reasoning is implicit from the overall bullish economic narrative.

yields

Our team thinks the Fed gets down to about a 3% Fed funds rate. The ten year rates, it's in for a quarter of four and a half, and that's a more normal rate structure for the United States. The interviewee explicitly states his team's forecast for the Fed funds rate to decline to 3% and for the 10-year yield to be around 4.5%. This implies a downward direction for yields from current levels, framed as a move to a 'more normal rate structure'. The tone is not aggressive ('cautious'), and the timeframe is implied to be longer-term ('longer term'), which maps to 'medium'.

14 calls

+0

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

11/13/2025 8:45:37 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.96%	+0.48%
10/29/2025 1:10:31 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.05%
10/15/2025 6:53:52 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+4.55%	-2.28%
9/18/2025 10:17:17 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.19%	-0.10%
9/17/2025 6:36:22 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+0.39%	+0.19%
9/17/2025 4:38:45 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.61%	-0.30%
9/5/2025 10:40:41 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+2.35%	-1.17%
9/3/2025 5:31:38 PM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	-0.69%	+1.04%
8/26/2025 11:54:24 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.92%	-0.46%
8/14/2025 9:14:07 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.74%	+0.37%

Show all 10 yields results

First of all, how's the U.S. economy doing actually? How's the U.S. consumer holding up?

Host
Brian Moynihan

The U.S. consumer is doing fine. For the month of November 25 versus November 24, spending was about 4.2-4.5%. The spending was solid and good and it's consistent with a growing economy. Our team has the economy growing next year at 2.4%.

But everything we see in the consumer side... they're worried about affordability. So we hear it from certain pockets of consumers. The bottom third is growing, it's just growing at a slower rate than the middle third or the top third. The good news is with the unemployment rate at 4.4%... the poor people are working, they're getting paid, etc. but they are worried about prices and affordability.
Would a Fed cut help?

Host
Brian Moynihan

A Fed cut helps and team believes the Fed will cut next week. They came to it slowly because the inflation is still higher than the target rates... and sticky. The belief is because labor markets softer, they have lower rates.

Right when they started raising rates, people told me it takes five years to actually squeeze out inflation and people just aren't patient. So it's been coming down and it's sort of sticky.
Brian Moynihan

The question really is longer term. Our team thinks the Fed gets down to about a 3% Fed funds rate. The ten year rates, it's in for a quarter of four and a half, and that's a more normal rate structure for the United States.

I think that's not a bad thing if you have a little higher inflation, a little faster growth and a normal rate structure... the incentives created by very low rates of stuff are out of the system. People can act on economic concerns.
And so what does that mean, that animal spirits are back in terms of also, you know, IPOs and M&A?

Host
Brian Moynihan

The activity kicked up after the new administration came in... you can get deals done. Our advice is you can get deals done and you're seeing the timeframe to approve a deal dropped by half. That's important because the idea of a deal being open for a year and a half is tough on the companies.

Then the second thing is settling out the major policies that you guys talk about every day on trade and immigration and tax. Those are settling in. Companies can look and discount cash flows and make decisions in an even a rate structure that's higher, as long as it's consistent they can plan into it.
What's your take on the UK? JP Morgan's building massive building in London. Are you committed to London?

Host
Brian Moynihan

We have 6000 teammates. We just announced hiring a thousand teammates in Belfast... We're in London, we believe in London. The UK, London in particular is a great place for multinational international operations.

The key is for the policy to make sure that you distinguish between companies are here because they're running international operation... make sure you get the regulation strategies right... If you over... make it hard to operate, that's when people start to make decisions.

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