Emerging Markets & Oil Price Scenarios (with Francine Lacqua)

12/12/2025 1:23:20 PM	medium term down	21 days later	+2.64%	-2.64%

Asks about the impact of the Iran war on emerging markets, referencing the Philippine President's comments on not propping up the peso.

Francine Lacqua

Phoenix Kalen

It's not across the board, but many vulnerable Asian economies are under severe stress due to high oil prices and limited days of reserves.

Specifically mentions the Philippines, Thailand, India, South Korea, and Japan as huge importers of oil, with many having less than 30 days of reserves left.

Asks how to attach probabilities to outcomes given the uncertainty around ceasefires and negotiations.

Francine Lacqua

Phoenix Kalen

We are doing a lot of scenario planning. Our commodities research team's base case is shifting from de-escalation by end of month to the most bearish alternative scenario.

Explicitly states: 'We are expecting for that paradigm shift in energy markets to occur. Brent prices go from like the 100-type levels per barrel to 150 per barrel in April. So that's what we're expecting as kind of the next phase... the market is going to drastically react to that because that's a whole new paradigm.'

Asks about inflation impact even if there is a ceasefire tomorrow.

Francine Lacqua

Phoenix Kalen

Inflation impact will differ across economies. Places like Egypt and Turkey will see huge inflation spikes in the short term due to sensitivity to commodity prices.

Notes that sensitivity has accelerated over the past 10 years due to devaluations.

Asks for a key data point to watch amidst the overwhelming news flow.

Francine Lacqua

Phoenix Kalen

Look for anecdotes about actual demand collapse in response to the supply shock.

Examples: airlines canceling flights, governments announcing national holidays to curb energy consumption.

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