Watch CNBC's full interview with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

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Chicago Fed 9.4
Central Bank
Austan Goolsbee 7.0

Watch CNBC's full interview with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

yields

If we are... I think... Rates can go down and still a fair amount... I do [see rates lower at the end of this year]. Conditional on seeing convincing evidence that inflation is on a path back to 2%. The direction is cautious due to the explicit conditionality and noted concerns about persistent services inflation.

12/12/2025 7:30:18 PM	long term cautious down	60 days later	-3.01%	+1.51%
12/12/2025 4:27:07 PM	long term cautious down	60 days later	-3.01%	+1.51%
9/23/2025 4:21:15 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.01%	+1.51%
8/15/2025 8:22:39 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	-6.80%	-3.40%
8/15/2025 4:22:33 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	-6.80%	-3.40%

Asks about low jobless claims and the 'low hire, low fire' world.

speaker1
Austan Goolsbee

Not surprised by low jobless claims. Labor market is stable, cooling slowly. Low hiring and low firing indicates high uncertainty, not a business cycle. Strength remains, driven by solid consumer spending rooted in income growth.
Asks if concern about job market weakness that motivated rate cuts should be put aside.

speaker1
Austan Goolsbee

Has put that concern aside. Dissented at last meeting due to lack of data. The most important task is getting inflation back to 2%. If on that path, with decent growth and a steady/cooling job market, rates can go down a fair amount.
Frames it as a debate on timing and asks if rates will be lower by year-end.

speaker1
Austan Goolsbee

Yes, rates can be lower, but it's more than timing. Need convincing evidence inflation is returning to 2%. Recent data is mixed: encouraging signs on goods/tariffs, but non-housing services inflation (over 4%) is not under control.
Presents a critical viewer question blaming Fed Chair Powell for losing inflation control and enabling fiscal insanity.

speaker3
Austan Goolsbee

Fed moved too slowly and deserves blame. Defends Powell as a 'first ballot Hall of Famer' for navigating crises without financial collapse, bringing inflation down sharply without a recession.
Asks about the administration's criminal subpoenas to the Fed.

speaker1
Austan Goolsbee

Attacks on central bank independence are dangerous and would cause inflation to roar back. Investigating the Fed as a pretext for disagreeing with rate decisions is a mess. The Fed's job is price stability and employment, not making markets or presidents happy.
Asks about taxpayer accountability for Fed spending, separate from policy coercion.

speaker4
Austan Goolsbee

There are over 60 audits of the Fed system. Oversight of costs is appropriate, but direct coercive control of the budget due to policy disagreements on interest rates would be really dangerous.

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