Mark Haefele is bullish on the S&P but even more bullish on the rally broadening out globally. He argues the positive impact from AI capex is 2x the negative impact from higher oil prices on global GDP. He does not see the Fed hiking anytime soon, as inflation is largely energy-driven and wage-price spirals are absent. He remains positive on gold due to de-dollarization concerns.
Yields
implicit
implicit
explicit
implicit
UBS
8.0
Investment Bank $4300.00B
Mark Haefele 9.0
Investment Bank $4300.00B
Mark Haefele 9.0
5/27/2026 5:53:40 PM
dxy
He mentions de-dollarization as a key topic for international investors and a driver for gold, implying a potential weakening of the dollar over the medium term.
| 3/10/2026 9:18:14 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +0.48% | +0.24% |
| 1/23/2026 5:36:13 AM | long term down | 60 days later | +3.20% | -3.20% |
| 11/17/2025 8:30:14 AM | long term down | 62 days later | -0.16% | +0.16% |
| 10/1/2025 3:08:31 PM | long term down | 60 days later | +1.59% | -1.59% |
| 8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | -1.63% | +1.63% |
metals
We still like gold. We think the gold trade is still going to have legs in the future, and it does provide something of a hedge in portfolios.
| 1/28/2026 12:46:08 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -19.07% | -9.53% |
| 1/14/2026 12:52:22 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +2.92% | +4.38% |
| 11/25/2025 7:45:19 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +8.79% | +8.79% |
| 11/14/2025 1:58:15 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.12% | +2.12% |
| 11/10/2025 11:21:12 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -2.26% | -3.39% |
| 10/22/2025 6:37:14 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.73% | -3.73% |
| 10/22/2025 9:24:32 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -3.73% | +1.87% |
| 10/1/2025 3:08:31 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.05% | +4.58% |
ndx
Haefele is bullish on the S&P and the rally broadening out, and expects 20% earnings growth. The NDX is a key driver of this growth, implying an upward direction.
| 3/4/2026 11:08:33 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.26% | -0.26% |
| 11/24/2025 7:04:12 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +1.30% | +0.65% |
| 11/14/2025 1:58:15 PM | long term up | 60 days later | +2.94% | +2.94% |
| 11/13/2025 7:13:56 PM | long term up | 60 days later | +2.93% | +2.93% |
| 10/29/2025 12:29:21 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.16% | -1.16% |
| 10/24/2025 10:16:08 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -3.96% | -3.96% |
| 10/22/2025 6:37:14 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.64% | +3.64% |
| 9/10/2025 1:15:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.17% | +1.17% |
| 8/20/2025 5:59:24 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.65% | -0.83% |
| 8/20/2025 10:38:49 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +3.05% | +3.05% |
| 7/31/2025 8:47:19 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +2.42% | +2.42% |
rut
Haefele explicitly states he is 'even more bullish on this rally broadening out globally' and sees opportunity for those not yet in the market, implying a positive view on small caps (RUT).
wti
He acknowledges the negative impact of oil prices but believes AI capex has a 2x offsetting effect, suggesting he sees current elevated prices as manageable and not a primary market driver in the short term.
| 4/29/2026 2:26:33 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/16/2026 7:37:20 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +13.07% | +6.54% |
| 4/16/2026 7:15:51 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +13.07% | -6.54% |
| 3/23/2026 9:02:01 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +5.70% |
| 3/23/2026 8:22:55 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +7.29% | +3.64% |
| 3/17/2026 10:29:24 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.50% | -8.50% |
| 3/4/2026 11:08:33 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +11.49% | +5.75% |
| 11/25/2025 7:45:19 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -5.76% | -5.76% |
| 11/13/2025 7:13:56 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.08% | +1.08% |
