Ian Lyngen is focused on the risk of weakening real personal consumption as nominal wage gains lag headline inflation. He believes the Fed's most reasonable hawkish response is to delay rate cuts, not hike. He expects new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to reduce forward guidance, which is implicitly hawkish and volatility-enhancing. He sees 10-30 year yields driven by global macro and expects breakevens to move lower.
explicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
implicit
BMO
8.0
Investment Bank $350.00B
Ian Lyngen 7.5
Investment Bank $350.00B
Ian Lyngen 7.5
5/27/2026 5:53:40 PM
dxy
He notes that last year international investors saw US gains eaten up by dollar weakness, and that de-dollarization is a topic that comes up a lot, implying a potential for further dollar weakness.
| 4/27/2026 2:16:47 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -0.15% | -0.08% |
yields
The Fed's most reasonable hawkish response function at the moment is to delay rate cuts rather than increase policy rates. They are well-positioned to wait and see.
| 4/24/2026 10:27:19 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +2.54% | -1.27% |
| 3/19/2026 4:23:39 PM | long term down | 60 days later | +6.29% | -6.29% |
| 1/21/2026 3:54:53 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -1.81% | -1.81% |
| 9/29/2025 1:46:24 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.34% | -0.17% |
| 8/28/2025 6:59:01 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.91% | -1.45% |
