Tom Lee argues the entire rally since April is explained by a $10 Q1 earnings beat ($40 annualized), adding 800-1000 S&P points. He sees a three-phase market: rally to 7700, then digestion until October due to a new Fed chair, energy shocks (petroleum shortages), and IPO unlocks (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) pressuring stocks like a bear market. Post-midterms, he expects a strong rally in 2027 with some of the best returns ever.

Brian Belski agrees with Tom Lee that 2026 is an earnings-driven market, which is more volatile than momentum-driven. He expects a deceleration in large-cap EPS growth (from 30% to 20%) that will scare investors, causing a 5-10% correction heading into fall. He advises rebalancing portfolios back to original weights as some stocks have doubled and become overweight. He remains a believer in the broadening-out theme driving markets into 2027.